Zhang Shu-Han, Zhao Ying-Ying, Shi Yu-Kun, Fang Qiang, Wang Xiang-Dong, Fan Jun-Xuan, Zhang Yi-Chun, Yuan Dong-Xun, Wang Yue, Zhang Fei-Fei, Wu Huai-Chun, Erwin Douglas H, Marshall Charles R, Shen Shu-Zhong
State Key Laboratory of Critical Earth Material Cycling and Mineral Deposits, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering and Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material Cycling, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
State Key Laboratory of Biogeology and Environmental Geology, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China.
Sci Adv. 2025 Jun 20;11(25):eadv2549. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adv2549.
The fossil record provides the only direct evidence of changes in biodiversity over time. Patterns in more inclusive taxonomic levels (e.g., families and orders) often become more complex because of interactions between biological traits and environmental conditions across different evolutionary lineages. Using supercomputing and artificial intelligence algorithms, we analyzed a high-resolution global dataset of fusuline foraminifera-the most diverse marine fossil group from the Carboniferous to the Permian (~340 to 252 million years ago)-at an unprecedented temporal resolution of <45 thousand years. Our unbinned diversity reconstruction reveals unexpectedly simple diversity dynamics in this exceptionally well-preserved clade. We identify two (and likely a third) truncated exponential diversifications and four major diversity declines. During this interval, long-term cooling consistently promoted biodiversification, whereas warming events were closely linked to extinctions. These findings imply that the current rapid global warming, driven by anthropogenic CO emissions, represents a critical threat to modern ecosystems.
化石记录提供了生物多样性随时间变化的唯一直接证据。由于不同进化谱系中生物特征与环境条件之间的相互作用，更广泛分类水平（如科和目）的模式往往变得更加复杂。我们使用超级计算和人工智能算法，以前所未有的小于4.5万年的时间分辨率，分析了一个高分辨率的全球纺锤形有孔虫数据集，纺锤形有孔虫是石炭纪至二叠纪（约3.4亿至2.52亿年前）最多样化的海洋化石类群。我们未分类的多样性重建揭示了这个保存异常完好的类群中出人意料的简单多样性动态。我们确定了两次（可能还有第三次）截断的指数式多样化以及四次主要的多样性下降。在此期间，长期降温持续促进生物多样化，而变暖事件则与灭绝密切相关。这些发现意味着，由人为碳排放驱动的当前全球快速变暖对现代生态系统构成了重大威胁。
