Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian Response (CCOUC), The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian Response (CCOUC), The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; GX Foundation, Hong Kong, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Aug 25;836:155497. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155497. Epub 2022 Apr 25.
Most published studies have assessed the overall health impact of temperature by using one-station or multiple-station averaged meteorological and air quality data. Concern has arisen about whether the temperature health impact is homogeneous across the whole territory geographically, since green space and socioeconomic factors may modify the impact.
This study aims at investigating how small-area mortality is modified by local temperature and other meteorological, air quality, green space, and socioeconomic factors of small geographic units in a subtropical urban setting.
Data on meteorological, air pollutants, and non-accidental mortality count in Hong Kong during 2006-2016 were obtained. Combined with green space and socioeconomic data, spatiotemporal analysis using Generalized Additive Mixed Models was conducted to examine the temperature-mortality relationship, adjusted for seasonality, long-term trend, other meteorological factors, pollutants, socioeconomic characteristics and green space.
Socioeconomic status was found to modify the temporal temperature-mortality relationship. A J-shape association was identified for most areas in Hong Kong, where a sharp increase of mortality was observed when daily minimum temperature dropped lower than the turning point. However, for people living in the most affluent areas, after the initial increase there was a decrease of mortality for colder days. Besides, when comparing the two spatiotemporal models (i.e. using nearby or central temperature monitoring station), while leaving the other predictors unchanged, this study showed that there was little difference in the overall model performances.
This study indicated that the daily fluctuation of mortality was associated with daily temperature, while the spatial variation of mortality within this city could be explained by the geographical distribution of green space and socioeconomic factors. Since people living in affluent areas were found to be more tolerant of cold temperatures, it would be more efficient to tailor cold temperature health education and warning information for socioeconomically deprived communities.
大多数已发表的研究都使用一站或多站平均气象和空气质量数据来评估温度对整体健康的影响。人们开始关注温度对健康的影响是否在整个地理区域内具有同质性，因为绿地和社会经济因素可能会改变这种影响。
本研究旨在调查在亚热带城市环境中，小区域的死亡率如何受到当地温度以及其他气象、空气质量、绿地和小地理单元的社会经济因素的影响。
获取了香港 2006-2016 年期间的气象、空气污染物和非意外死亡计数数据。结合绿地和社会经济数据，使用广义加性混合模型进行时空分析，以检验调整季节性、长期趋势、其他气象因素、污染物、社会经济特征和绿地后温度与死亡率之间的关系。
发现社会经济地位会改变温度与死亡率的时间关系。在香港的大多数地区都发现了一种 J 形关联，即当每日最低温度降至转折点以下时，死亡率会急剧上升。然而，对于生活在最富裕地区的人来说，在最初的上升之后，寒冷天气下的死亡率会下降。此外，在比较两个时空模型（即使用附近或中心温度监测站）时，在保持其他预测因子不变的情况下，本研究表明总体模型性能差异不大。
本研究表明，死亡率的日波动与每日温度有关，而城市内部死亡率的空间变化可以用绿地和社会经济因素的地理分布来解释。由于发现生活在富裕地区的人对寒冷温度的耐受性更高，因此为社会经济贫困社区量身定制寒冷温度健康教育和预警信息将更加有效。
