Ebbesen P
AIDS Res. 1986 Dec;2 Suppl 1:S23-8.
Recent changes in sexual habits have likely contributed to the emergence of a new sexually transmissible agent, acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) virus. This virus may have been present in central Africa as early as 1959; however, frequent infection did not produce an epidemic until the late 1970's. Migration of Africans from rural to urban areas may have contributed to the transmission of AIDS virus. An estimated 1.7 million Americans and 5,000,000 Africans are infected. An incubation period of five years +/- 36 months to onset of disease is estimated. Development of AIDS during a three-year period after detection of AIDS virus antibodies has occurred in 30% of homosexual males in Manhattan and 10% of infected men in Denmark. Conservatively, in excess of 20% of seropositive will likely develop AIDS. Although modification of sexual behavior is recommended, those who will develop AIDS in the near future are already infected. Public health workers ought to be preparing for additional pandemics of infectious diseases which may arise from changing cultural habits.
近期性行为习惯的改变可能促使了一种新的性传播病原体——获得性免疫缺陷综合征（艾滋病）病毒的出现。这种病毒早在1959年可能就已在中非出现；然而，直到20世纪70年代末，频繁感染才引发了一场流行病。非洲人从农村向城市地区的迁移可能促进了艾滋病病毒的传播。据估计，有170万美国人以及500万非洲人受到感染。据估计，从感染艾滋病病毒到发病的潜伏期为五年加减36个月。在曼哈顿，检测出艾滋病病毒抗体后的三年内，30%的同性恋男性患上了艾滋病，在丹麦，10%的受感染男性出现了这种情况。保守估计，超过20%的血清反应阳性者可能会患上艾滋病。尽管建议改变性行为，但那些在不久的将来会患上艾滋病的人已经被感染了。公共卫生工作者应该为因文化习惯改变可能引发的其他传染病大流行做好准备。
