Beijing Climate Change Response Research and Education Center, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 100044, China.
Beijing Climate Change Response Research and Education Center, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 100044, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Aug 20;835:155489. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155489. Epub 2022 Apr 26.
Variation in the physical and chemical environment driven by climate change poses severe threats to the world cultural heritage. Assessing climate risk of cultural heritage is significant to their protection, especially for countries such as China which has a long history and a large amount of cultural heritage. In the study, we employ the risk assessment framework proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to assess quantitatively the long-term precipitation-related climate risk of cultural heritage at the provincial level in China. The cultural heritage is divided into 5 categories based on material and cultural characteristics: ancient culture sites, ancient tombs, ancient architectural structures, cave temples and stone carvings, and the modern and contemporary historic sites; and the future climate is projected to 2099 under the RCP-4.5 scenario. The results show that the risk of 5 categories of heritage varies considerably. The overall risk of the ancient culture sites and ancient tombs is significantly higher than that of the other 3 categories of heritage due to the vulnerable materials and old age. Spatially, the central regions of China face the highest overall climate risk due to the high hazard and exposure, followed by the eastern regions and the western regions. There are small regional differences in the risk of the ancient tombs while significant regional differences in the risk of the ancient architectural structures. To mitigate the climate risk of cultural heritage, the study highlights the key regions and the corresponding categories of heritage as well as strategies for prioritizing cultural heritage protection.
气候变化导致的物理和化学环境变化对世界文化遗产构成了严重威胁。评估文化遗产的气候风险对其保护意义重大，特别是对于中国这样一个历史悠久、文化遗产丰富的国家。在研究中，我们采用政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）提出的风险评估框架，对中国省级文化遗产的长期降水相关气候风险进行定量评估。文化遗产根据物质和文化特征分为 5 类：古代文化遗址、古代墓葬、古代建筑结构、石窟寺和石刻以及近现代历史遗迹；未来气候根据 RCP-4.5 情景预测至 2099 年。结果表明，5 类遗产的风险差异较大。由于材料脆弱和年代久远，古代文化遗址和古代墓葬的整体风险明显高于其他 3 类遗产。在空间上，由于高危害和高暴露，中国中部地区面临的总体气候风险最高，其次是东部地区和西部地区。古代墓葬的风险存在小区域差异，而古代建筑结构的风险存在显著的区域差异。为了减轻文化遗产的气候风险，研究强调了关键区域和相应的遗产类别，以及文化遗产保护的优先策略。
