Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang City, China.
Front Endocrinol (Lausanne). 2022 Apr 14;13:863037. doi: 10.3389/fendo.2022.863037. eCollection 2022.
BACKGROUND: Acute pancreatitis in pregnancy (APIP) with persistent organ failure (POF) poses a high risk of death for mother and fetus. This study sought to create a nomogram model for early prediction of POF with APIP patients. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study on APIP patients with organ failure (OF) between January 2012 and March 2021. 131 patients were collected. Their clinical courses and pregnancy outcomes were obtained. Risk factors for POF were identified by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Prediction models with POF were built and nomogram was plotted. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by using a bootstrapped-concordance index and calibration plots. RESULTS: Hypertriglyceridemia was the most common etiology in this group of APIP patients, which accounted for 50% of transient organ failure (TOF) and 72.3% of POF. All in-hospital maternal death was in the POF group (<0.05), which also had a significantly higher perinatal mortality rate than the TOF group (<0.05). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis determined that lactate dehydrogenase, triglycerides, serum creatinine, and procalcitonin were independent risk factors for predicting POF in APIP. A nomogram for POF was created by using the four indicators. The area under the curve was 0.875 (95%CI: 0.80-0.95). The nomogram had a bootstrapped-concordance index of 0.85 and was well-calibrated. CONCLUSIONS: Hypertriglyceridemia was the leading cause of organ failure-related APIP. Lactate dehydrogenase, triglycerides, serum creatinine, and procalcitonin were the independent risk factors of POF in APIP. Our nomogram model showed an effective prediction of POF with the four indicators in APIP patients.
背景:妊娠合并持续性器官衰竭的急性胰腺炎(APIP)对母婴均有很高的死亡风险。本研究旨在建立一种预测 APIP 患者发生持续性器官衰竭(POF)的列线图模型。
方法:我们进行了一项关于 2012 年 1 月至 2021 年 3 月期间发生器官衰竭(OF)的 APIP 患者的横断面研究。共收集了 131 例患者。获取了他们的临床病程和妊娠结局。采用单因素和多因素 logistic 回归分析确定 POF 的危险因素。建立了预测 POF 的模型并绘制了列线图。通过 bootstrap 一致性指数和校准图评估了列线图的性能。
结果:在这组 APIP 患者中,高脂血症是最常见的病因,占一过性器官衰竭(TOF)的 50%和 POF 的 72.3%。所有院内死亡均发生在 POF 组(<0.05),POF 组的围产儿死亡率也明显高于 TOF 组(<0.05)。单因素和多因素 logistic 回归分析确定,乳酸脱氢酶、甘油三酯、血清肌酐和降钙素原是预测 APIP 患者 POF 的独立危险因素。使用这四个指标建立了 POF 的列线图。曲线下面积为 0.875(95%CI:0.80-0.95)。列线图的 bootstrap 一致性指数为 0.85,校准良好。
结论:高脂血症是导致与器官衰竭相关的 APIP 的主要原因。乳酸脱氢酶、甘油三酯、血清肌酐和降钙素原是 APIP 患者 POF 的独立危险因素。我们的列线图模型显示,使用这四个指标可以有效预测 APIP 患者的 POF。
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