Xing Jiayu, Xu Musen, Xu Jiale, Liu Jiao, He Fang
Shanxi Bethune Hospital, Shanxi Academy of Medical Sciences, Tongji Shanxi Hospital, Third Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China.
Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
Front Med (Lausanne). 2024 Aug 6;11:1411288. doi: 10.3389/fmed.2024.1411288. eCollection 2024.
Acute pancreatitis is an inflammatory disease that can lead to persistent organ failure (POF), which is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Early prediction of POF in AP can significantly improve patient outcomes.
To develop and validate a nomogram that combines pain score with laboratory indicators for predicting POF in patients with AP.
A retrospective cohort study was conducted, including patients diagnosed with AP. Pain score and laboratory indicators were collected within the first 24 h of admission. A nomogram was developed using logistic regression models and validated in a separate cohort.
There were 807 patients in the training cohort and 375 patients in the internal validation cohort.Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that pain score, serum creatinine, hematocrit, serum calcium, and serum albumin were independent risk factors for the incidence of POF in patients with AP. The area under the curve of the nomogram constructed from the above factors were 0.924, respectively. The model demonstrated good calibration and discrimination in both the development and validation cohorts.
The nomogram had a good performance in predicting POF in patients with AP and can be used to guide clinical decision-making.
急性胰腺炎是一种炎症性疾病，可导致持续性器官衰竭（POF），这与发病率和死亡率的增加相关。急性胰腺炎中POF的早期预测可显著改善患者预后。
开发并验证一种将疼痛评分与实验室指标相结合的列线图，用于预测急性胰腺炎患者的POF。
进行了一项回顾性队列研究，纳入诊断为急性胰腺炎的患者。在入院后24小时内收集疼痛评分和实验室指标。使用逻辑回归模型开发列线图，并在另一个队列中进行验证。
训练队列中有807例患者，内部验证队列中有375例患者。多因素逻辑回归表明，疼痛评分、血清肌酐、血细胞比容、血清钙和血清白蛋白是急性胰腺炎患者POF发生的独立危险因素。由上述因素构建的列线图的曲线下面积分别为0.924。该模型在开发队列和验证队列中均表现出良好的校准和区分能力。
该列线图在预测急性胰腺炎患者的POF方面表现良好，可用于指导临床决策。
