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中国大城市新冠疫情期间的出行限制及其对租赁住房市场的影响。

Mobility restrictions and their implications on the rental housing market during the COVID-19 pandemic in China's large cities.

作者信息

Li Tian, Jing Xia, Wei Ouyang, Yinlong Liang, Jinxuan Liu, Yongfu Li, Li Wan, Ying Jin, Weipan Xu, Yaotian Ma, Yifan Du

机构信息

Department of Urban Planning, School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.

College of Architecture and Art, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, Anhui, China.

出版信息

Cities. 2022 Jul;126:103712. doi: 10.1016/j.cities.2022.103712. Epub 2022 Apr 29.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant mobility restrictions and generated profound impacts on global socio-economic development. Mobility restrictions can generate significant impacts on the demand and supply sides of the rental housing market. By taking 77 large Chinese cities as cases, this research establishes a stepwise mediation effect test to evaluate the impacts of the pandemic on the rental housing market during Q1 2020. The results show that the confirmed cases were negatively associated with rental unit transactions, and the inter-city and intra-city movement played a significant role of mediating effects. Meanwhile, the impact of pandemic on rents lagged behind rental transaction in China's large cities, and the strict mobility controls caused the high vacancy rate of rental housing, leading to the bankruptcy of many housing rental agencies. Our research add to the burgeoning literature examining the mediating effect of mobility control between confirmed case and housing rental market. It demonstrates that the change of housing rental market induced by pandemic in China is the short-term influence on rental unit transaction, which is different from western countries. In China, a country with the most strict mobility control, the challenges come from the impact of pandemic on housing rental agencies.

摘要

新冠疫情引发了严格的出行限制,并对全球社会经济发展产生了深远影响。出行限制会对租赁住房市场的供需双方产生重大影响。本研究以中国77个大城市为例,建立逐步中介效应检验,以评估疫情对2020年第一季度租赁住房市场的影响。结果表明,确诊病例与租赁单元交易呈负相关,城市间和城市内的流动起到了显著的中介作用。同时,疫情对中国大城市租金的影响滞后于租赁交易,严格的出行管控导致租赁住房空置率居高不下,致使许多房屋租赁中介破产。我们的研究为新兴的关于出行管控在确诊病例与住房租赁市场之间中介效应的文献增添了内容。研究表明,中国疫情引发的住房租赁市场变化是对租赁单元交易的短期影响,这与西方国家不同。在中国这个实施最严格出行管控的国家,挑战来自疫情对房屋租赁中介的影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5940/9050625/e621e10e8920/gr1_lrg.jpg

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