Bilek-Steindl Sandra, Url Thomas
Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO), Vienna, Austria.
Empirica (Dordr). 2022;49(2):313-345. doi: 10.1007/s10663-022-09533-0. Epub 2022 Mar 2.
We propose a nowcasting approach for indicators assigned to the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 8, calling for decent work and economic growth. The nowcasts of SDG indicators are based on dynamic factor models. In this mixed frequency framework, we exploit information from a comprehensive set of quarterly data to nowcast annually observed SDG indicators. For the model selection and specification search we evaluate the nowcast properties of the models based on a pseudo real-time data set. More recent information on SDGs can disclose a possible deviation from the desired path at an early stage. As an example, we present nowcasts for SDG objectives in Austria for the year 2020. The design of our assessment follows the method and quantitative rules suggested by Eurostat. SDG 8 indicators are highly related to the underlying economic situation and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are clearly visible in the results for 2020.
我们提出了一种针对分配给可持续发展目标(SDG)8(要求体面工作和经济增长)各项指标的现况预测方法。可持续发展目标指标的现况预测基于动态因子模型。在这个混合频率框架中,我们利用一组全面的季度数据中的信息来对年度观测的可持续发展目标指标进行现况预测。对于模型选择和规格搜索,我们基于一个伪实时数据集评估模型的现况预测属性。关于可持续发展目标的最新信息可以在早期阶段揭示与预期路径可能存在的偏差。作为一个例子,我们展示了奥地利2020年可持续发展目标各项目标的现况预测。我们评估的设计遵循了欧盟统计局建议的方法和定量规则。可持续发展目标8的指标与基础经济形势高度相关,2020年的结果中新冠疫情的影响清晰可见。