NOVAIMS, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Campus de Campolide, 1070-312, Lisbon, Portugal.
Sci Rep. 2022 May 5;12(1):7356. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-11376-5.
This paper explores the associations between sex, age and hospital health care pressure in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portuguese mainland municipalities. To represent the impact of sex and age, we calculated COVID-19 standardised incidence ratios (SIR) in Portuguese mainland municipalities over fourteen months daily, especially focusing on the Porto metropolitan area. A daily novel indicator was devised for hospital health care pressure, consisting of an approximation to the ratio of hospitalisations per available hospital medical doctor (HPI). In addition, 14-day incidence rates were also calculated daily (DIR14), both as an approach and an alternative to the current national pandemic surveillance indicator (which is not calculated with such regularity). Daily maps were first visualised to evaluate spatial patterns. Pearson's correlation coefficients were then calculated between each proposed surveillance indicator (SIR and DIR14) and the HPI. Our results suggest that hospital pressure is not strongly associated with SIR (r = 0.34, p value = 0.08). However, DIR14 bears a stronger correlation with hospital pressure (r = 0.84, p value < 0.001). By establishing the importance of tackling sex and age through the inclusion of these factors explicitly in an epidemiological monitoring indicator, and assessing its relationship with a hospital pressure indicator, our findings have public policy implications that could improve COVID-19 incidence surveillance in Portugal and elsewhere, contributing to advancing the management of potential pandemics in the near future, with a particular focus on local and regional territorial scales.
本文探讨了 COVID-19 大流行背景下葡萄牙本土城市中性别、年龄与医院医疗压力之间的关联。为了体现性别和年龄的影响,我们计算了葡萄牙本土城市 14 个月内的 COVID-19 标准化发病比(SIR),特别是重点关注波尔图大都市区。设计了一个新的每日医院医疗压力指标,由医院每可用住院医生的住院人数(HPI)比值的近似值组成。此外,还计算了 14 天发病率(DIR14),作为当前国家大流行监测指标的一种方法和替代方法(该指标没有如此规律地计算)。首先可视化每日地图以评估空间模式。然后计算了每个拟议监测指标(SIR 和 DIR14)与 HPI 之间的皮尔逊相关系数。我们的结果表明,医院压力与 SIR 没有很强的相关性(r = 0.34,p 值 = 0.08)。然而,DIR14 与医院压力的相关性更强(r = 0.84,p 值 < 0.001)。通过明确将这些因素纳入流行病学监测指标中,以确定性别的重要性和年龄,并评估其与医院压力指标的关系,我们的发现具有公共政策意义,可改善葡萄牙和其他国家的 COVID-19 发病率监测,有助于在不久的将来更好地管理潜在的大流行,特别是关注地方和地区的规模。