Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China; Clinical Research Center of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
Pancreatology. 2022 Jun;22(5):608-618. doi: 10.1016/j.pan.2022.04.011. Epub 2022 Apr 28.
Understanding epidemiology trends and patterns of pancreatic cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and predicting the burden to 2030 will provide foundations for future policies development.
We collected incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) data of pancreatic cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to depict the trends of pancreatic cancer burden and predicted the incidence and mortality in the next decade by using a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis.
The number of incident cases sharply increased from 26.77 thousand in 1990 to 114.96 thousand in 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) nearly doubled from 3.17 per 100,000 in 1990 to 5.78 per 100,000 in 2019, with an EAPC of 2.32 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.12, 2.51). The mortality and DALYs presented a similar pattern with incidence. The dominant risk factor for pancreatic cancer was smoking, but the contribution of high body-mass index increased from 1990 to 2019. We projected that the incident cases and deaths of pancreatic cancer would increase to 218.79 thousand and 222.97 thousand, respectively, in 2030 with around 2 times growth.
During the past three decades, the incidence, mortality and DALYs of pancreatic cancer gradually increased in China, and the absolute number and rate of pancreatic cancer burden would continue to rise over the next decade. Comprehensive policies and strategies need to be implemented to reduce the incidence and mortality.
了解 1990 年至 2019 年中国胰腺癌的流行病学趋势和模式，并预测 2030 年的负担，为未来政策制定提供基础。
我们根据 2019 年全球疾病负担研究收集了中国 1990 年至 2019 年胰腺癌的发病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALY）数据。我们计算了估计的年百分变化（EAPC），以描述胰腺癌负担的趋势，并使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列分析预测未来十年的发病率和死亡率。
1990 年至 2019 年，新发病例数从 26.77 千例急剧增加到 114.96 千例，年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）从 1990 年的每 10 万人 3.17 例几乎翻了一番，达到 2019 年的每 10 万人 5.78 例，EAPC 为 2.32（95%置信区间[CI]：2.12，2.51）。死亡率和 DALY 呈现出与发病率相似的模式。胰腺癌的主要危险因素是吸烟，但高身体质量指数的贡献从 1990 年到 2019 年有所增加。我们预计，到 2030 年，胰腺癌的新发病例和死亡人数将分别增至 218.79 千例和 222.97 千例，增长约 2 倍。
在过去的三十年中，中国胰腺癌的发病率、死亡率和 DALY 逐渐增加，未来十年胰腺癌负担的绝对数量和比率将继续上升。需要实施综合政策和策略，以降低发病率和死亡率。
