H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, North Ave NW, Atlanta, GA, 30332, USA.
Moore School of Business, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, 29208, USA.
Sci Rep. 2022 May 6;12(1):7493. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-11060-8.
During a pandemic, vaccination plays an important role in reducing the infection spread or adverse outcomes such as hospitalizations and deaths. However, a vaccine's overall public health impact depends not only on its initial efficacy, but also its efficacy against emerging variants and ease and speed of distribution. For example, mutations in SARS-CoV-2 raised concerns about diminishing vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 caused by particular variants. Furthermore, due to supply-chain challenges, the accessibility and distribution of the vaccines have been hindered in many regions, especially in low-income countries, while the second or third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has occurred due to the variants. Hence, we evaluated the interactions between the speed of distribution and efficacy against infection of multiple vaccines when variants emerge by utilizing a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Deceased model and assessing the level of infection attack rate. Our results show that speed is a key factor to a successful immunization strategy to control the pandemic even when the emerging variants may reduce the efficacy of a vaccine. Understanding the interactions between speed and efficacy and distributing vaccines that are available as quickly as possible are crucial to eradicate the pandemic before new variants spread.
在大流行期间,接种疫苗对于减少感染传播或住院和死亡等不良后果至关重要。然而,疫苗对公众健康的总体影响不仅取决于其最初的疗效,还取决于其对新出现的变异体的疗效以及分发的便利性和速度。例如,SARS-CoV-2 的突变引起了人们对特定变体引起的 COVID-19 疫苗效力降低的担忧。此外,由于供应链挑战,疫苗在许多地区,尤其是在低收入国家,其可及性和分发受到阻碍,而由于变异体的出现,COVID-19 的第二波或第三波疫情已经发生。因此,我们通过利用易感-感染-恢复-死亡模型评估了在出现变异体时,多种疫苗的分发速度与对感染的疗效之间的相互作用,并评估了感染攻击率的水平。我们的研究结果表明,即使新出现的变异体可能降低疫苗的疗效,速度也是成功控制大流行的免疫策略的关键因素。了解速度和疗效之间的相互作用,并尽快分发现有的疫苗,对于在新变异体传播之前消灭大流行至关重要。