Artelys, Paris, 75009, France.
Artelys, Brussels, 1040, Belgium.
F1000Res. 2022 Apr 1;11:387. doi: 10.12688/f1000research.109399.1. eCollection 2022.
The European Commission has settled ambitious objectives in order to reach climate neutrality by 2050. This will imply the shift from fossil fuel to low carbon energy supply and an adaptation of the energy system according to it. Electrification and production of green hydrogen are seen as structural pillars. The objective of the study is to quantify energy infrastructure needs required in various climate neutral scenarios at the 2050 time horizon. The work was based on Artelys Crystal Super Grid, a tool developed at Artelys for modelling and simulating energy markets on a continental or national scale. In this study, we apply a multi-energy (i.e., power, hydrogen, methane) capacity expansion and dispatch optimisation methodology, featuring hourly and national granularity, covering the European Union plus major neighbouring countries. Several investments options are considered: storage assets, electrolysers, cross-border electricity, hydrogen and CH4 interconnections (including repurposing of CH4 infrastructures), and gas-to-power capacities. Important needs for cross-border electricity infrastructure appear in all the considered scenarios. Cross-border hydrogen infrastructure needs strongly depend on the geographic allocation of renewable energy sources across Europe. Security of supply in Europe can be maintained without investing in additional cross-border methane pipelines. Existing methane pipelines will be repurposed or characterized by low utilisation rates at the 2050 horizon. The multi-energy optimization approach developed is well suited to assess electricity, methane and hydrogen infrastructure projects and their interdependencies considering various scenarios. While electricity and methane infrastructure needs are quite robust across several sensitivities on a climate neutral scenario, hydrogen infrastructure needs are more uncertain and depend on various factors such as the level of hydrogen demand, its competition with biomethane and the level of colocation between RES generation and hydrogen demand.
欧盟委员会设定了雄心勃勃的目标，以期在 2050 年前实现气候中和。这将意味着从化石燃料向低碳能源供应转变，并根据需要调整能源系统。电气化和绿色氢气生产被视为结构性支柱。本研究的目的是量化在 2050 年时间框架内各种气候中和情景下所需的能源基础设施。该研究基于 Artelys Crystal Super Grid 进行，这是 Artelys 开发的用于在大陆或国家范围内建模和模拟能源市场的工具。在本研究中，我们应用了一种多能源（即电力、氢气、甲烷）产能扩张和调度优化方法，具有小时和国家粒度，涵盖了欧盟及主要邻国。考虑了几种投资选择：存储资产、电解槽、跨境电力、氢气和 CH4 互联（包括 CH4 基础设施的再利用）以及气电产能。在所有考虑的情景中，都需要重要的跨境电力基础设施。跨境氢气基础设施的需求强烈依赖于欧洲可再生能源的地理分配。在不投资额外的跨境甲烷管道的情况下，欧洲的供应安全可以得到维持。现有的甲烷管道将在 2050 年之前被重新利用或具有低利用率。所开发的多能源优化方法非常适合评估考虑各种情景的电力、甲烷和氢气基础设施项目及其相互依存关系。虽然在气候中和情景下，电力和甲烷基础设施的需求相当稳健，但氢气基础设施的需求更加不确定，取决于各种因素，如氢气需求水平、其与生物甲烷的竞争以及可再生能源发电和氢气需求之间的配置水平。
