Brookstein Delene M, Daffern Michael, Ogloff James R P, Campbell Rachel E, Chu Chi Meng
Centre for Forensic Behavioural Science, Swinburne University of Technology, Alphington, VIC, Australia.
Victorian Institute of Forensic Mental Health (Forensicare), Melbourne, Australia.
Psychiatr Psychol Law. 2020 Jun 16;28(3):325-342. doi: 10.1080/13218719.2020.1775152. eCollection 2021.
The Historical Clinical Risk Management-20 Version 3 is the latest iteration in the HCR-20 series, adopting novel changes such as the addition of Relevance ratings and non-requirement to include the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised. This study aimed to examine these changes and compare the predictive validity of the HCR-20 to the HCR-20. The sample comprised of 100 forensic psychiatric patients, retrospectively followed up for a maximum period of approximately 13 years post-discharge from the Thomas Embling Hospital. Recidivism data were sourced from official police records. Results indicated good to excellent inter-rater reliability. The HCR-20 significantly predicted violent recidivism (area under the curve = .70 to .77), levels of accuracy that were not significantly different from the HCR-20. HCR-20 Relevance ratings failed to add incremental validity above Presence ratings; however, the PCL-R improved upon the HCR-20's validity. The study represented one of the first evaluations of the HCR-20 in Australia.
《历史临床风险管理-20第三版》是HCR-20系列的最新版本，采用了一些新的变化，如增加了相关性评级，且无需纳入《修订版精神病态量表》。本研究旨在考察这些变化，并比较HCR-20与HCR-20的预测效度。样本包括100名法医精神病患者，对其进行回顾性随访，最长随访期为从托马斯·恩布林医院出院后的约13年。再犯数据来自警方官方记录。结果表明评分者间信度良好至优秀。HCR-20能显著预测暴力再犯（曲线下面积=0.70至0.77），其准确性水平与HCR-20无显著差异。HCR-20相关性评级未能在存在性评级之上增加额外效度；然而，《修订版精神病态量表》提升了HCR-20的效度。该研究是澳大利亚对HCR-20的首批评估之一。
