Consistent signals of a warming climate in occupancy changes of three insect taxa over 40 years in central Europe.

Recent climate and land-use changes are having substantial impacts on biodiversity, including population declines, range shifts, and changes in community composition. However, few studies have compared these impacts among multiple taxa, particularly because of a lack of standardized time series data over long periods. Existing data sets are typically of low resolution or poor coverage, both spatially and temporally, thereby limiting the inferences that can be drawn from such studies. Here, we compare climate and land-use driven occupancy changes in butterflies, grasshoppers, and dragonflies using an extensive data set of highly heterogeneous observation data collected in the central European region of Bavaria (Germany) over a 40-year period. Using occupancy models, we find occupancies (the proportion of sites occupied by a species in each year) of 37% of species have decreased, 30% have increased and 33% showed no significant trend. Butterflies and grasshoppers show strongest declines with 41% of species each. By contrast, 52% of dragonfly species increased. Temperature preference and habitat specificity appear as significant drivers of species trends. We show that cold-adapted species across all taxa have declined, whereas warm-adapted species have increased. In butterflies, habitat specialists have decreased, while generalists increased or remained stable. The trends of habitat generalists and specialists both in grasshoppers and semi-aquatic dragonflies, however did not differ. Our findings indicate strong and consistent effects of climate warming across insect taxa. The decrease of butterfly specialists could hint towards a threat from land-use change, as especially butterfly specialists' occurrence depends mostly on habitat quality and area. Our study not only illustrates how these taxa showed differing trends in the past but also provides hints on how we might mitigate the detrimental effects of human development on their diversity in the future.