Lyu Xiaojun, Ke Haiqian
Fanli Business School, Nanyang Institute of Technology, Nanyang 473000, China.
Institute of Central China Development, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Apr 23;19(9):5151. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19095151.
Promoting technical change is an important driving force for promoting the sustainable development of urban economy and ecology; however, the technical change is not always neutral and technical change may has a certain direction. This paper uses the DEA-Malmquist index to measure the directed technical change of 280 cities in China from 2009 to 2019, and uses the DMSP/OLS night light data to characterize the urban economic development level. It uses the dynamic threshold regression model to analyze the impact of directed technical change on urban carbon footprint under different economic development levels. The results show that: (1) during the study period, the carbon footprint of Chinese cities has a positive spatial correlation, and the direction of technical change is towards capital-saving overall. (2) The impact of capital-saving technical change on urban carbon footprint presents a negative double-threshold characteristic in China, and the inhibition of capital-saving technical change on the urban carbon footprint becomes stronger with the increasing economic development level. (3) The inhibitory effect of capital-saving technical change on carbon footprint has regional heterogeneity, and the inhibitory effect of capital-saving technical change on carbon footprint is stronger in eastern China than other regions. (4) Industrial structure, energy structure and innovation efficiency are mediating variables of the inhibitory effect of capital-saving technical change on carbon footprint except for population density.
促进技术变革是推动城市经济与生态可持续发展的重要驱动力；然而，技术变革并非总是中性的，其可能具有一定的方向。本文运用DEA-Malmquist指数测度了2009—2019年中国280个城市的定向技术变革，并利用DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据表征城市经济发展水平，采用动态门槛回归模型分析不同经济发展水平下定向技术变革对城市碳足迹的影响。研究结果表明：（1）研究期内，中国城市碳足迹存在正向空间关联，技术变革方向总体上朝着节约资本。（2）节约资本型技术变革对中国城市碳足迹的影响呈现负向双门槛特征，且随着经济发展水平的提高，节约资本型技术变革对城市碳足迹的抑制作用增强。（3）节约资本型技术变革对碳足迹的抑制作用存在区域异质性，东部地区节约资本型技术变革对碳足迹的抑制作用强于其他地区。（4）除人口密度外，产业结构、能源结构与创新效率是节约资本型技术变革对碳足迹抑制作用的中介变量。
