Zeng Tianyi, Jin Hong, Geng Zhifei, Kang Zihang, Zhang Zichen
Key Laboratory of Cold Region Urban and Rural Human Settlement Environment Science and Technology, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, School of Architecture, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150006, China.
Business School, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 May 9;19(9):5772. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19095772.
Climate change caused by CO emissions is a controversial topic in today's society; improving CO emission efficiency (CEE) is an important way to reduce carbon emissions. While studies have often focused on areas with high carbon and large economies, the areas with persistent contraction have been neglected. These regions do not have high carbon emissions, but are facing a continuous decline in energy efficiency; therefore, it is of great relevance to explore the impact and mechanisms of CO emission efficiency in shrinking areas or shrinking cities. This paper uses a super-efficiency slacks-based measure (SBM) model to measure the CO emission efficiency and potential CO emission reduction (PCR) of 33 prefecture-level cities in northeast China from 2006 to 2019. For the first time, a Tobit model is used to analyze the factors influencing CEE, using the level of urban shrinkage as the core variable, with socio-economic indicators and urban construction indicators as control variables, while the mediating effect model is applied to identify the transmission mechanism of urban shrinkage. The results show that the CEE index of cities in northeast China is decreasing by 1.75% per annum. For every 1% increase in urban shrinkage, CEE decreased by approximately 2.1458%, with urban shrinkage, industrial structure, and expansion intensity index (EII) being the main factors influencing CEE. At the same time, urban shrinkage has a further dampening effect on CEE by reducing research and development expenditure (R&D) and urban compactness (COMP), with each 1% increase in urban shrinkage reducing R&D and COMP by approximately 0.534% and 1.233%, respectively. This can be improved by making full use of the available built-up space, increasing urban density, and promoting investment in research.
由碳排放导致的气候变化是当今社会一个颇具争议的话题；提高碳排放效率是减少碳排放的重要途径。虽然研究通常聚焦于高碳排放和经济规模大的地区，但持续收缩的地区却被忽视了。这些地区并非碳排放量大，而是面临能源效率持续下降的问题；因此，探究收缩地区或收缩城市的碳排放效率的影响及机制具有重大意义。本文运用超效率松弛测度（SBM）模型测度了2006年至2019年中国东北地区33个地级市的碳排放效率及潜在碳减排量。首次运用Tobit模型分析影响碳排放效率的因素，以城市收缩水平作为核心变量，社会经济指标和城市建设指标作为控制变量，同时应用中介效应模型识别城市收缩的传导机制。结果表明，东北地区城市的碳排放效率指数每年下降1.75%。城市收缩每增加1%，碳排放效率下降约2.1458%，城市收缩、产业结构和扩张强度指数（EII）是影响碳排放效率的主要因素。同时，城市收缩通过减少研发支出（R&D）和城市紧凑度（COMP）对碳排放效率产生进一步的抑制作用，城市收缩每增加1%，研发支出和城市紧凑度分别下降约0.534%和1.233%。这可以通过充分利用现有的建成空间、提高城市密度以及促进研发投资来加以改善。
