State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Silviculture, Zhejiang A & F University, Hangzhou 311300, China; Key Laboratory of Carbon Cycling in Forest Ecosystems and Carbon Sequestration of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang A & F University, Hangzhou 311300, China; School of Environmental and Resources Science, Zhejiang A & F University, Hangzhou 311300, China.
State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Silviculture, Zhejiang A & F University, Hangzhou 311300, China; Key Laboratory of Carbon Cycling in Forest Ecosystems and Carbon Sequestration of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang A & F University, Hangzhou 311300, China; School of Environmental and Resources Science, Zhejiang A & F University, Hangzhou 311300, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Sep 10;838(Pt 1):155993. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155993. Epub 2022 May 15.
Net ecosystem productivity (NEP) is an important index that indicates the carbon sequestration capacity of forest ecosystems. However, the effect of climate change on the spatiotemporal variability in NEP is still unclear. Using the Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon-budget (InTEC) model, this study takes the typical subtropical forests in the Zhejiang Province, China as an example, simulated the spatiotemporal patterns of forest NEP from 1979 to 2079 based on historically observed climate data (1979-2015) and data from three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We analyzed the responses of NEP at different forest age classes to the variation in meteorological factors. The NEP of Zhejiang's forests decreased from 1979 to 1985 and then increased from 1985 to 2015, with an annual increase rate of 9.66 g C·m·yr and a cumulative NEP of 364.99 Tg·C. Forest NEP decreased from 2016 to 2079; however, the cumulative NEP continued to increase. The simulated cumulative NEP under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios was 750 Tg·C, 866 Tg·C, and 958 Tg·C, respectively, at the end of 2079. Partial correlation analysis between forest NEP at different age stages and meteorological factors showed that temperature is the key climatic factor that affects the carbon sequestration capacity of juvenile forests (1979-1999), while precipitation is the key climatic factor that affects middle-aged forests (2000-2015) and mature forests (2016-2079). Adopting appropriate management strategies for forests, such as selective cutting of different ages, is critical for the subtropical forests to adapt to climate change and maintain their high carbon sink capacity.
净生态系统生产力（NEP）是指示森林生态系统碳固存能力的重要指标。然而，气候变化对 NEP 的时空变化的影响尚不清楚。本研究使用综合陆地生态系统碳预算（InTEC）模型，以中国浙江省的典型亚热带森林为例，根据历史观测的气候数据（1979-2015 年）和耦合模式比较计划 5（CMIP5）提供的三个代表性浓度路径（RCP）情景（RCP2.6、RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5）数据，模拟了 1979 年至 2079 年森林 NEP 的时空格局。我们分析了不同林龄类别的 NEP 对气象因子变化的响应。浙江森林的 NEP 从 1979 年到 1985 年减少，然后从 1985 年到 2015 年增加，年增长率为 9.66 g C·m·yr，累积 NEP 为 364.99 Tg·C。2016 年至 2079 年，森林 NEP 减少；然而，累积 NEP 继续增加。在 RCP2.6、RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 情景下，到 2079 年底，模拟的累积 NEP 分别为 750Tg·C、866Tg·C 和 958Tg·C。不同林龄阶段森林 NEP 与气象因子的偏相关分析表明，温度是影响幼林（1979-1999 年）固碳能力的关键气候因素，而降水是影响中龄林（2000-2015 年）和成熟林（2016-2079 年）的关键气候因素。采取适当的森林管理策略，如对不同年龄的选择性采伐，对于亚热带森林适应气候变化和保持其高碳汇能力至关重要。
