School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Department of Biology, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland.
Nat Commun. 2022 May 18;13(1):2751. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-30507-0.
Global diversity patterns in the fossil record comprise a mosaic of regional trends, underpinned by spatially non-random drivers and distorted by variation in sampling intensity through time and across space. Sampling-corrected diversity estimates from spatially-standardised fossil datasets retain their regional biogeographic nuances and avoid these biases, yet diversity-through-time arises from the interplay of origination and extinction, the processes that shape macroevolutionary history. Here we present a subsampling algorithm to eliminate spatial sampling bias, coupled with advanced probabilistic methods for estimating origination and extinction rates and a Bayesian method for estimating sampling-corrected diversity. We then re-examine the Late Permian to Early Jurassic marine fossil record, an interval spanning several global biotic upheavals that shaped the origins of the modern marine biosphere. We find that origination and extinction rates are regionally heterogenous even during events that manifested globally, highlighting the need for spatially explicit views of macroevolutionary processes through geological time.
全球化石记录中的多样性模式由区域趋势的镶嵌体组成，其基础是空间非随机驱动因素，并受到随时间和空间采样强度变化的扭曲。从空间标准化化石数据集校正后的多样性估计保留了其区域生物地理细微差别，避免了这些偏差，但随时间变化的多样性源于起源和灭绝的相互作用，这些过程塑造了宏观进化历史。在这里，我们提出了一种消除空间采样偏差的子采样算法，结合了先进的概率方法来估计起源和灭绝率，以及一种贝叶斯方法来估计采样校正后的多样性。然后，我们重新审视了晚二叠世至早侏罗世的海洋化石记录，这一时期跨越了几个全球性的生物剧变，这些剧变塑造了现代海洋生物的起源。我们发现，即使在全球表现的事件中，起源和灭绝率也是区域异质的，这凸显了在地质时间内对宏观进化过程进行空间明确观察的必要性。
