Liu Zeyuan, Lei Yu, Xue Wenbo, Liu Xin, Jiang Yueqi, Shi Xurong, Zheng Yixuan, Zhang Qingyu, Wang Jinnan
College of Environmental & Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China.
Center of Air Quality Simulation and System Analysis, Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012, China.
Environ Sci Technol. 2022 Jun 21;56(12):7647-7656. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.2c00114. Epub 2022 May 19.
China is confronting the challenge of opposite health benefits (OHBs) during ambient ozone (O) mitigation because the same reduction scheme might yield opposite impacts on O levels and associated public health across different regions. Here, we used a combination of chemical transport modeling, health benefit assessments, and machine learning to capture such OHBs and optimize O mitigation pathways based on 121 control scenarios. We revealed that, for the China mainland, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surroundings ("2 + 26" cities), Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta, there could be at most 2897, 920, 1247, and 896 additional O-related deaths in urban areas, respectively, accompanying 21,512, 3442, 5614, and 642 avoided O-related deaths in rural areas, respectively, at the same control stage. Additionally, potential disbenefits during O mitigation were "pro-wealthy", that is, residents in developed regions are more likely to afford additional health risks. In order to avoid OHBs during O abatement, we proposed a two-phase control strategy, whereby the reduction ratio of NO (nitrogen oxide) to VOCs (volatile organic compounds) was adjusted according to health benefit distribution patterns. Our study provided novel insights into China's O attainment and references for other countries facing the dual challenges of environmental pollution and associated inequality issues.
中国在缓解环境臭氧(O)过程中面临着相反健康效益(OHBs)的挑战,因为相同的减排方案可能会对不同地区的臭氧水平及相关公众健康产生相反的影响。在此,我们结合化学传输模型、健康效益评估和机器学习,基于121种控制情景来捕捉此类相反健康效益,并优化臭氧缓解途径。我们发现,对于中国大陆、京津冀及其周边地区(“2 + 26”城市)、长江三角洲和珠江三角洲,在同一控制阶段,城市地区可能分别最多有2897例、920例、1247例和896例与臭氧相关的额外死亡,同时农村地区分别有21512例、3442例、5614例和642例与臭氧相关的死亡得以避免。此外,臭氧缓解过程中的潜在不利影响具有“亲富性”,即发达地区的居民更有可能承受额外的健康风险。为了在臭氧减排过程中避免出现相反健康效益,我们提出了一种两阶段控制策略,即根据健康效益分布模式调整氮氧化物(NO)与挥发性有机化合物(VOCs)的减排比例。我们的研究为中国实现臭氧达标提供了新的见解,并为其他面临环境污染及相关不平等问题双重挑战的国家提供了参考。