Yuan Yusong, Tang Yongchuan
School of Big Data and Software Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 401331, China.
School of Microelectronics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an, 710072, Shaanxi, China.
Sci Rep. 2022 May 19;12(1):8424. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-12360-9.
Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) has been widely used for potential risk modeling and management. Expert evaluation is used to model the risk priority number to determine the risk level of different failure modes. Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is an effective method for uncertain information modeling and has been adopted to address the uncertainty in FMEA. How to deal with conflicting evidence from different experts is an open issue. At the same time, different professional backgrounds of experts may lead to different weights in modeling the evaluation. How to model the relative weight of an expert is an important problem. We propose an improved risk analysis method based on triangular fuzzy numbers, the negation of basic probability assignment (BPA) and the evidence distance in the frame of D-S evidence theory. First, we summarize and organize the expert's risk analysis results. Then, we model the expert's assessments based on the triangular fuzzy numbers as BPAs and calculate the negation of BPAs. Third, we model the weight of expert based on the evidence distance in the evidence theory. Finally, the Murphy's combination rule is used to fuse the risk assessment results of different experts and calculate the new risk priority number (RPN). At the end of this paper, we apply the proposed method to analyze seventeen failure modes of aircraft turbine blades. The experimental results verify the rationality and effectiveness of this method.
失效模式与效应分析（FMEA）已被广泛用于潜在风险建模与管理。专家评估用于对风险优先数进行建模，以确定不同失效模式的风险水平。Dempster-Shafer（D-S）证据理论是一种用于不确定信息建模的有效方法，并已被用于解决FMEA中的不确定性问题。如何处理来自不同专家的冲突证据是一个悬而未决的问题。同时，专家不同的专业背景可能导致在评估建模中权重不同。如何对专家的相对权重进行建模是一个重要问题。我们提出了一种基于三角模糊数、基本概率分配（BPA）的否定以及D-S证据理论框架下的证据距离的改进风险分析方法。首先，我们总结并整理专家的风险分析结果。然后，我们基于三角模糊数将专家的评估建模为BPA，并计算BPA的否定。第三，我们基于证据理论中的证据距离对专家权重进行建模。最后，使用墨菲组合规则融合不同专家的风险评估结果并计算新的风险优先数（RPN）。在本文结尾，我们应用所提出的方法分析了飞机涡轮叶片的十七种失效模式。实验结果验证了该方法的合理性和有效性。
