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论新冠疫情与中国对外贸易。

On COVID-19 pandemic and China's foreign trade.

作者信息

Fang Jing, Ou Jinghua, Yao Shujie

机构信息

School of Economics Hangzhou Normal University Hangzhou China.

School of Economics and Business Administration Chongqing University Chongqing China.

出版信息

World Econ. 2022 Apr 15. doi: 10.1111/twec.13269.

Abstract

In this study, we analyse China's foreign trade performance under the global COVID-19 pandemic using the monthly data in 2019-2021. This paper finds that: (1) China's exports to its major trading partners recover and continue to grow in the second half of 2020 and 2021, after falling significantly in the first half of 2020; (2) the mechanical & electrical and the high-tech industries have contributed significantly to the recovery of China's exports; (3) the exports of medical products, furniture and appliances show growth in line with the implementation of quarantine policies; (4) the exports of electronic products and electrical vehicles kept growing both before the outbreak and during the pandemic. It is posited that China should continue to expand trade with emerging markets while maintaining a steady trade volume with the developed economies. We also recommend that China focus its future export development on these industries and products that are growing steadily and have greater potential, including the mechanical & electrical industry, the high-tech industry, electronic products and electrical vehicles.

摘要

在本研究中,我们利用2019 - 2021年的月度数据,分析了全球新冠疫情下中国的外贸表现。本文发现:(1)中国对主要贸易伙伴的出口在2020年上半年大幅下降后,于2020年下半年和2021年恢复并持续增长;(2)机电和高科技产业对中国出口的恢复做出了重大贡献;(3)医疗产品、家具和电器的出口随着检疫政策的实施而增长;(4)电子产品和电动汽车的出口在疫情爆发前和疫情期间都保持增长。假定中国应在与发达经济体保持稳定贸易额的同时,继续扩大与新兴市场的贸易。我们还建议中国未来的出口发展应集中在这些稳步增长且潜力更大的行业和产品上,包括机电行业、高科技行业、电子产品和电动汽车。

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