School of Computer Science and Technology, Jiangsu Normal University, No.101 Shanghai Road, Tongshan District, Xuzhou 221116, China.
Business School, Jiangsu Normal University, No.101 Shanghai Road, Tongshan District, Xuzhou 221116, China.
Math Biosci Eng. 2022 Apr 14;19(6):6141-6156. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022287.
A mathematical model for decision maker's preference prediction in environmental governance conflict is established based on the graph model for conflict resolution. The rapid economic development in many countries, over the past decades, has caused serious environmental pollution. Sewage companies are the main source of contamination since they are always wavering on the issue of environmental governance because of their profit-seeking nature. Environmental management departments cannot grasp the offending company preferences accurately. The problem of how to obtain decision maker's preference in environmental governance conflict is studied in this paper. The mathematical model established in this paper can obtain a preference set of one decision maker on the promise that the ideal conflict outcome and preference of the other decision makers are known. Then, preference value distribution information entropy is introduced to mine the preference information contained in the preference set, which means that it is possible to get the preference information of conflict opponent at their own ideal conflict outcome. All of these preference sets provide the possibility to choose the appropriate coping strategies and lead the conflict to the direction that some decision makers want. Finally, the effectiveness and superiority of the preference prediction analysis method is verified through a case study of "Chromium Pollution in Qujing County" which took place in China. The preference prediction analysis method in this paper can provide decision making support for the decision makers in environmental governance from strategic level.
建立了基于冲突解决图模型的环境治理冲突中决策者偏好预测的数学模型。过去几十年，许多国家经济的快速发展导致了严重的环境污染。由于追求利润，污水公司一直对环境治理问题犹豫不决，因此它们是污染的主要来源。环境管理部门无法准确掌握违规公司的偏好。本文研究了如何在环境治理冲突中获得决策者的偏好的问题。本文建立的数学模型可以在已知其他决策者的理想冲突结果和偏好的情况下，获得一个决策者对承诺的偏好集。然后，引入偏好值分布信息熵来挖掘偏好集中包含的偏好信息，这意味着可以在冲突对手的理想冲突结果中获取其偏好信息。所有这些偏好集都为选择适当的应对策略并引导冲突朝着某些决策者希望的方向发展提供了可能性。最后，通过对中国发生的“曲靖铬污染”案例的研究，验证了偏好预测分析方法的有效性和优越性。本文的偏好预测分析方法可以为环境治理中的决策者从战略层面提供决策支持。
