2003-2019 年澳大利亚甲基苯丙胺使用、市场和危害趋势。

Trends in methamphetamine use, markets and harms in Australia, 2003-2019.

机构信息

National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, Australia.

School of Mathematics and Statistics, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, Australia.

出版信息

Drug Alcohol Rev. 2022 Jul;41(5):1041-1052. doi: 10.1111/dar.13468. Epub 2022 May 23.

DOI:10.1111/dar.13468

PMID:35604870

Abstract

INTRODUCTION

To describe trends in methamphetamine use, markets and harms in Australia from 2003 to 2019.

METHODS

Data comprised patterns of use and price from sentinel samples of people who inject drugs and who use MDMA/other illicit stimulants and population-level amphetamine-related police seizures, arrests, hospitalisations, treatment episodes and deaths from approximately 2003 to 2019. Bayesian autoregressive time-series models were analysed for: no change; constant rate of change; and change over time differing in rate after one to three changepoints. Related indicators were analysed post hoc with identical changepoints.

RESULTS

The percentage of people who inject drugs reporting weekly use increased from 2010 to 2013 onwards, while use among samples of people who regularly use ecstasy and other illicit stimulants decreased. Seizures and arrests rose steeply from around 2009/10 to 2014/15 and subsequently plateaued. Price increased ($15.9 [95% credible interval, CrI $9.9, $28.9] per point of crystal per year) from around 2009 to 2011, plateauing and then declining from around 2017. Hospitalisation rates increased steeply from around 2009/10 until 2015/16, with a small subsequent decline. Treatment also increased (19.8 episodes [95% CrI 13.2, 27.6] with amphetamines as the principal drug of concern per 100 000 persons per year) from 2010/11 onwards. Deaths involving amphetamines increased (0.285 per 100 000 persons per year) from 2012 until 2016.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that problematic methamphetamine use and harms escalated from 2010 to 2012 onwards in Australia, with continued demand and a sustained market for methamphetamine. [Correction added on 30 May 2022, after first online publication: In the Abstract under 'Discussion and Conclusions' 'onwards' has been added after … 2010 to 2012].

摘要

介绍

描述 2003 年至 2019 年澳大利亚甲基苯丙胺使用、市场和危害的趋势。

方法

数据包括 2003 年至 2019 年期间，注射毒品者和使用摇头丸/其他非法兴奋剂者的哨点样本中的使用模式和价格，以及与苯丙胺相关的人口水平缉获、逮捕、住院、治疗发作和死亡的情况。使用贝叶斯自回归时间序列模型分析了以下三种情况：没有变化；恒定变化率；以及在一个到三个变点之后变化率不同的时间变化。使用相同的变点对相关指标进行了事后分析。

结果

报告每周使用甲基苯丙胺的注射毒品者比例从 2010 年至 2013 年开始增加，而定期使用摇头丸和其他非法兴奋剂的样本中的使用量则减少。缉获和逮捕从 2009/10 年左右急剧上升到 2014/15 年，随后趋于平稳。价格从 2009 年左右上涨（每点晶体 15.9 美元[95%可信区间，CrI 9.9 美元，28.9 美元]），2011 年趋于平稳，然后从 2017 年开始下降。住院率从 2009/10 年左右急剧上升到 2015/16 年，随后略有下降。治疗也从 2010/11 年开始增加（每年每 10 万人有 19.8 次[95%CrI 13.2，27.6]与苯丙胺相关的主要关注药物）。涉及苯丙胺的死亡人数从 2012 年到 2016 年增加（每年每 10 万人 0.285 人）。