National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
School of Psychology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia.
Drug Alcohol Rev. 2021 Sep;40(6):946-956. doi: 10.1111/dar.13252. Epub 2021 Feb 24.
This paper aims to describe cocaine use, markets and harms in Australia from 2003 to 2019.
Outcome indicators comprised prevalence of use from triennial household surveys; patterns of use from annual surveys of sentinel samples who use stimulants; and cocaine-related seizures, arrests, hospitalisations, deaths and treatment episodes. Bayesian autoregressive time-series analyses were conducted to estimate trend over time: Model 1, no change; Model 2, constant rate of change; and Model 3, change over time differing in rate after one change point.
Past-year population prevalence of use increased over time. The percentage reporting recent use in sentinel samples increased by 6.1% (95% credible interval [CrI ] 1.2%,16.9%; Model 3) per year from around 2017 (48%) until the end of the series (2019: 67%). There was a constant annual increase in number of seizures (count ratio: 1.1, CrI 1.1,1.2) and arrests (1.2, CrI 1.1,1.2), and percentage reporting cocaine as easy to obtain in the sentinel samples (percent increase 1.2%, CrI 0.5%,1.8%; Model 2). Cocaine-related hospitalisation rate increased from 5.1 to 15.6 per 100 000 people from around 2011-2012 to 2017-2018: an annual increase of 1.3 per 100 000 people (CrI 0.8,1.8; Model 3). While the death rate was low (0.23 cocaine-related deaths per 100 000 people in 2018; Model 2), treatment episodes increased from 3.2 to 5.9 per 100 000 people from around 2016-2017 to 2017-2018: an annual increase of 2.9 per 100 000 people (CrI 1.6,3.7; Model 3).
Cocaine use, availability and harm have increased, concentrated in recent years, and accompanied by increased treatment engagement.
本文旨在描述 2003 年至 2019 年期间澳大利亚可卡因的使用、市场和危害。
结果指标包括三年一次的家庭调查中使用的流行率；每年对使用兴奋剂的哨点样本进行的使用模式调查；以及可卡因相关的扣押、逮捕、住院、死亡和治疗事件。进行贝叶斯自回归时间序列分析以估计随时间的趋势：模型 1，不变；模型 2，恒定变化率；模型 3，在一个变化点之后，变化率随时间变化。
过去一年的人口使用率呈上升趋势。在哨点样本中，最近使用可卡因的百分比每年增加 6.1%（95%可信区间 [CrI] 1.2%，16.9%；模型 3），从 2017 年左右（48%）到系列结束时（2019 年：67%）。扣押数量（计数比：1.1，CrI 1.1，1.2）和逮捕数量（1.2，CrI 1.1，1.2）呈逐年增加趋势，哨点样本中报告可卡因容易获得的比例也有所增加（增加百分比 1.2%，CrI 0.5%，1.8%；模型 2）。可卡因相关的住院率从 2011-2012 年左右的每 10 万人 5.1 人增加到 2017-2018 年的每 10 万人 15.6 人：每年每 10 万人增加 1.3 人（CrI 0.8，1.8；模型 3）。虽然死亡率较低（2018 年每 10 万人中有 0.23 例可卡因相关死亡；模型 2），但从 2016-2017 年到 2017-2018 年，治疗人数从每 10 万人 3.2 人增加到 5.9 人：每年每 10 万人增加 2.9 人（CrI 1.6，3.7；模型 3）。
可卡因的使用、供应和危害都有所增加，集中在近年来，并伴随着治疗参与度的增加。
