Department of Applied Econometrics, Metropolitan Autonomous University, 02200, Mexico City, State of Mexico, Mexico.
Department of Social Sciences, Faculty of Higher Studies Cuautitlan-UNAM, 54714, Mexico, State of Mexico, Mexico.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Oct;29(49):73987-74002. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-20711-2. Epub 2022 May 28.
This paper analyzes the impact of international oil price uncertainty on the different economic sectors (primary, secondary, and tertiary) in Mexico in the period 1993:1-2020:4 through a bivariate structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean to capture the impact of oil volatility on economic growth at the sectoral level of economic activity. The results show that the uncertainty of the international price of oil has a differentiated effect on the different sectors of economic activity in Mexico since it does not influence the primary sector; it negatively impacts the secondary sector, and there is mixed evidence in the tertiary sector. Additionally, evidence is provided that both positive and negative shocks to the international oil price have asymmetric effects at the sectoral level in Mexico. The results highlight the need to implement public policies, at the country level, that help mitigate the effect of uncertainty in the oil market and promote economic stability at the sector level.
本文通过建立一个带有均值广义自回归条件异方差（GARCH）的二元结构向量自回归（VAR）模型，分析了 1993 年 1 月至 2020 年 4 月期间国际油价不确定性对墨西哥不同经济部门（初级、次级和三级）的影响。该模型旨在捕捉石油波动对经济增长的影响。结果表明，国际油价的不确定性对墨西哥不同经济活动部门产生了差异化的影响，因为它不会影响初级部门；它对次级部门产生负面影响，而在三级部门则存在混合证据。此外，有证据表明，国际油价的正向和负向冲击在墨西哥的部门层面都具有非对称效应。结果强调了需要在国家层面实施公共政策，以帮助减轻石油市场不确定性的影响，并促进部门层面的经济稳定。
