Chang Lei, Baloch Zulfiqar Ali, Saydaliev Hayot Berk, Hyder Mansoor, Dilanchiev Azer
School of Economics, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China.
College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 29 Jiangsu Avenue, Nanjing, 211106, China.
Resour Policy. 2022 Sep;78:102891. doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102891. Epub 2022 Jul 7.
This paper is occasioned by the current events in the crude oil markets throughout the Covid pandemic time. The study analyzes the evolving nature of crude oil cost unpredictability caused by the variations that influence the crude sector throughout the current contagion. Every day's dataset is within the first month of 2020 and December 30, 2021 were measured by applying VAR and GARCH models. The results corroborate that the current contagion has adverse effects on the crude sector, primarily in two ways. It resulted in the headwinds for demand and cut international demand for crude oil, increasing uncertainty for major advanced and developing nations. Next, it resulted in output headwinds as the pandemic caused hydrocarbons conflicts among the leading crude supplying countries. The two headwinds seem to have caused the more than necessary crude unpredictability. Moreover, it was found that the United States output, total requirements, and crude-leaning demand shocks adversely affect the supply unpredictability of the United States and the extractive sectors. The findings depict that crude price instability responded significantly to the contagion caused by crude headwinds. Specifically, the study recorded the effect of uncertainty because of these headwinds beyond financiers' concerns about crude price instability. This study indicates that spillovers do not have meaningful forecast data, igniting critical debates concerning the relevance of the spillover indicator for predicting at minimal sampling occurrence.
本文是受新冠疫情期间原油市场的当前事件所引发。该研究分析了在当前疫情期间影响原油行业的各种变化所导致的原油成本不可预测性的演变性质。通过应用VAR和GARCH模型对2020年第一个月至2021年12月30日的每日数据集进行了测量。结果证实，当前疫情对原油行业产生了不利影响，主要体现在两个方面。它给需求带来了阻力，削减了国际原油需求，增加了主要发达和发展中国家的不确定性。其次，由于疫情导致主要原油供应国之间发生碳氢化合物冲突，从而造成了产出阻力。这两种阻力似乎导致了不必要的原油不可预测性。此外，研究发现美国的产量、总需求和原油偏向需求冲击对美国的供应不可预测性和采掘行业产生了不利影响。研究结果表明，原油价格不稳定对原油阻力引发的疫情有显著反应。具体而言，该研究记录了由于这些阻力导致的不确定性的影响，超出了投资者对原油价格不稳定的担忧。这项研究表明，溢出效应没有有意义的预测数据，引发了关于溢出指标在最小抽样情况下预测相关性的激烈辩论。
