Ebeling K, Nischan P, Zellmer C
Arch Geschwulstforsch. 1987;57(1):61-7.
During 1975-1978 in 3 districts of Berlin, 985 patients with lung cancer have been newly registered. In 805 patients the type of detection, asymptomatic or symptom-detected, has been evaluated carefully. Asymptomatic and symptom-detected cases have been compared with respect to their fatality: 5-year-survival rates for asymptomatic or symptom-detected cases amounted to 6.8 and 2.0 per cent, respectively. There was no significant difference between survival rates for cases aged 75 and more. Because of these small or non-significant differences, long-term effects on mortality by screening asymptomatic people seems to be extremely small if they exist at all. Therefore, looking at the methods available for earlier detection, screening for lung cancer must be discussed more critically than optimistically.
1975年至1978年期间，柏林的3个区新登记了985例肺癌患者。对其中805例患者的检测类型（无症状或有症状）进行了仔细评估。对无症状和有症状检测出的病例的死亡率进行了比较：无症状或有症状检测出的病例的5年生存率分别为6.8%和2.0%。75岁及以上病例的生存率之间没有显著差异。由于这些差异很小或不显著，对无症状人群进行筛查对死亡率的长期影响即使存在也似乎极小。因此，鉴于现有的早期检测方法，对肺癌筛查的讨论必须更持批判性而非乐观态度。
