Prince of Songkla University - PSU, Faculty of Environmental Management, Songkhla, Thailand.
Balochistan University of Information Technology, Engineering & Management Sciences - BUITEMS, Faculty of Engineering & Architecture, Department of Chemical Engineering, Quetta, Balochistan, Pakistan.
Braz J Biol. 2022 Jun 6;84:e261001. doi: 10.1590/1519-6984.261001. eCollection 2022.
Drought variability analysis is of utmost concern for planning and efficiently managing water resources and food security in any specific area. In the current study, drought spell occurrence has been investigated in the Balochistan province of Pakistan during the past four decades (1981-2020) using standardized precipitation index (SPI), reconnaissance drought index (RDI), and precipitation deciles (PD) at an annual timescale. Precipitation and temperature data collected from 13 synoptic meteorological stations located in Balochistan were used to calculate the SPI, the RDI, and the PD for calculation of drought severity and duration. Based on these indices, temporal analysis shows adverse impacts of drought spells in Nokkundi during 1991-1993, in Barkhan, Dalbandin, Quetta stations during 1999-2000, whereas Barkhan, Dalbandin, Lasbella, Sibi during 2002-2003, Zhob during 2010-2011, Kalat and Khuzdar during 2014-2015, and Panjgur during 2017-2018. Also, the aridity index for each station was calculated based on the UNEP method shows that major part of Balochistan lies in the arid zone, followed by the hyper-arid in the southwestern part and the semi-arid zones in the northeastern part of the province. SPI and RDI results were found more localized than PD, as PD shows extensive events. Furthermore, principal component analysis shows a significant contribution from all the indices. For SPI, RDI, and PD, the first three principal components have more than 70% share, contributing 73.63%, 74.15%, and 72.30% respectively. By integrating drought patterns, long-term planning, and preparedness to mitigate drought impacts are only possible. The RDI was found more suitable and recommended in case of temperature data availability.
干旱变异性分析对于规划和有效管理特定地区的水资源和粮食安全至关重要。在本研究中，使用标准化降水指数（SPI）、侦察干旱指数（RDI）和降水十分位数（PD），在年时间尺度上研究了巴基斯坦俾路支省在过去四十年（1981-2020 年）期间干旱事件的发生情况。从俾路支省的 13 个气象站收集的降水和温度数据用于计算 SPI、RDI 和 PD，以计算干旱严重程度和持续时间。基于这些指数，时间分析表明，1991-1993 年在诺克迪恩、1999-2000 年在巴尔汗、达尔班丁、奎达，2002-2003 年在巴尔汗、达尔班丁、拉斯贝拉、锡比，2010-2011 年在佐布，2014-2015 年在卡拉特和胡兹达尔，2017-2018 年在潘杰古尔出现了干旱事件。此外，根据环境署方法计算的每个站的干旱指数表明，俾路支省的大部分地区属于干旱带，其次是西南部的极干旱带和东北部的半干旱带。SPI 和 RDI 的结果比 PD 更具有局部性，因为 PD 显示了广泛的干旱事件。此外，主成分分析表明所有指数都有显著贡献。对于 SPI、RDI 和 PD，前三个主成分的份额超过 70%，分别贡献 73.63%、74.15%和 72.30%。通过整合干旱模式，只有可能进行长期规划和准备，以减轻干旱影响。在有温度数据可用的情况下，发现 RDI 更合适且推荐使用。
