University of Carthage, National Institute of Agronomy of Tunisia, Laboratory of Water Sciences and Technologies, 43, Avenue Charles Nicolle, 1082, Tunis, Mahrajène, Tunisia.
University of Carthage, National Institute of Agronomy of Tunisia, Laboratory of Water Sciences and Technologies, 43, Avenue Charles Nicolle, 1082, Tunis, Mahrajène, Tunisia.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Sep 10;734:139311. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139311. Epub 2020 May 16.
The objective of this research is to explore spatial extent and temporal pattern of historical droughts and their impacts on agricultural production in Tunisia. This contribution was based on monthly rainfall series recorded from September 1973 to August 2016 in 16 main meteorological stations in Tunisia. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and the annual Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) were computed and used to characterize the gravity of climatic events and their spatial and temporal variations. A database of strategic crop productions and Agricultural Gross Domestic Product (AGDP) variation has been collected from FAO's official website. Based on SPI and RDI, strongly correlated indices (R = 0.99; p < .05), it is demonstrated that Tunisia has experienced several multi-year droughts (3 to 7 years) with different severities. During 1981, Tunisia suffered a generalized drought. However during 1996, severe to extreme humidity was observed over 70% of Tunisian territory (SPI and RDI values >1.5). Series of normal or near-normal years were recorded during 50% of the study period. Variation in cereal production showed the strongest correlation with RDI (R = 0.66), followed by olive oil (R = 0.45) and citrus fruits (R = 0.43). The outputs of this research could be useful for main stakeholders to identify compromised measure (subsidies, insurance) improving management of agricultural activities to mitigate drought impacts at farm level and over production zones.
本研究旨在探讨突尼斯历史干旱的空间范围和时间模式及其对农业生产的影响。本研究基于突尼斯 16 个主要气象站 1973 年 9 月至 2016 年 8 月的月降雨量序列。计算了标准化降水指数（SPI）、侦察干旱指数（RDI）和年潜在蒸散量（PET），并用于描述气候事件的严重程度及其时空变化。从粮农组织官方网站收集了战略作物产量和农业国内生产总值（AGDP）变化的数据库。基于 SPI 和 RDI，高度相关的指数（R=0.99;p<0.05）表明，突尼斯经历了几次不同严重程度的多年干旱（3 至 7 年）。1981 年，突尼斯遭受了普遍干旱。然而，1996 年，突尼斯 70%以上的地区出现了严重到极端湿度（SPI 和 RDI 值>1.5）。在研究期间的 50%，记录了一系列正常或接近正常的年份。谷物产量的变化与 RDI 相关性最强（R=0.66），其次是橄榄油（R=0.45）和柑橘类水果（R=0.43）。本研究的结果可为主要利益相关者提供有用信息，以确定受影响的措施（补贴、保险），从而改进农业活动管理，以减轻农场和生产区的干旱影响。
