Key Laboratory of Environmental Evolution and Ecological Construction of Hebei Province, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang, PR China.
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sejong University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
PLoS One. 2024 Aug 19;19(8):e0307147. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0307147. eCollection 2024.
Drought is a complex natural hazard that occurs when a region experiences a prolonged period of dry conditions, leading to water scarcity and negative impacts on the environment. This study analyzed the recurrence of drought and wet spells in Baluchistan province, Pakistan. Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) were used to analyze droughts in Baluchistan during 1986-2021. Statistical analysis i.e. run theory, linear regression, and correlation coefficient were used to quantify the trend and relationship between meteorological (RDI, SPEI) and agricultural (VCI) droughts. The meteorological drought indices (1, 3, 6, and 12-month RDI and SPEI) identified severe to extreme drought spells during 1986, 1988, 1998, 2000-2002, 2004, 2006, 2010, 2018-2019, and 2021 in most meteorological stations (met-stations). The Lasbella met-station experienced the most frequent extreme to severe droughts according to both the 12-month RDI (8.82%) and SPEI (15.38%) indices. The Dalbandin met-station (8.34%) follows closely behind for RDI, while Khuzdar (5.88%) comes in second for the 12-month SPEI. VCI data showed that Baluchistan experienced severe to extreme drought in 2000, 2001, 2006, and 2010. The most severe drought occurred in 2000 and 2001, affecting 69% of the study region. A positive correlation was indicated between meteorological (RDI, SPEI) and agricultural drought index (VCI). The multivariate indices can provide valuable knowledge about drought episodes and preparedness to mitigate drought impacts.
干旱是一种复杂的自然灾害，当一个地区经历长时间的干燥条件时，就会发生干旱，导致水资源短缺和对环境的负面影响。本研究分析了巴基斯坦俾路支省干旱和湿润期的重现情况。利用侦察干旱指数（RDI）、标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）和植被状况指数（VCI）分析了 1986-2021 年俾路支省的干旱情况。统计分析即运行理论、线性回归和相关系数用于量化气象（RDI、SPEI）和农业（VCI）干旱之间的趋势和关系。气象干旱指数（1、3、6 和 12 个月的 RDI 和 SPEI）在大多数气象站（met-stations）识别出 1986 年、1988 年、1998 年、2000-2002 年、2004 年、2006 年、2010 年、2018-2019 年和 2021 年期间严重到极端干旱期。拉斯贝拉气象站根据 12 个月 RDI（8.82%）和 SPEI（15.38%）指数经历了最频繁的极端到严重干旱。Dalbandin 气象站紧随其后（8.34%），而 Khuzdar 气象站在 12 个月 SPEI 中排名第二（5.88%）。VCI 数据显示，俾路支省在 2000 年、2001 年、2006 年和 2010 年经历了严重到极端干旱。最严重的干旱发生在 2000 年和 2001 年，影响了研究区域的 69%。气象（RDI、SPEI）和农业干旱指数（VCI）之间呈正相关。多元指数可以提供有关干旱事件的有价值的知识，并为减轻干旱影响做好准备。
