Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, København, Denmark.
Department of Economics, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany.
PLoS One. 2022 Jun 8;17(6):e0268276. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0268276. eCollection 2022.
We extract data on physiological aging by computing a frailty index for 201 countries over the period 1990-2019. Using panel estimation techniques, we show that the macro frailty index replicates basic regularities previously observed in related studies of aging at the individual level. We then use the frailty index to highlight trends of global physiological aging and its relationship to economic growth. Holding population age structure fixed, the global frailty index has on average increased by about 2 percent over the last 30 years. The average person has therefore aged by what corresponds to about one life-year of physiological aging. This overall trend is relatively similar across different geographical regions. We also document a negative relationship between physiological aging of the workforce and economic growth. According to our preferred specification, a one percent increase in the frailty index of the workforce is associated with a 1.5 percent decline of GDP per capita. This means that average annual growth of labor productivity would have been 0.1 percentage points higher without physiological aging in the period 1990-2019.
我们通过计算 1990 年至 2019 年间 201 个国家的脆弱指数来提取生理衰老数据。利用面板估计技术,我们表明宏观脆弱指数复制了之前在个体衰老相关研究中观察到的基本规律。然后,我们使用脆弱指数来突出全球生理衰老的趋势及其与经济增长的关系。在固定人口年龄结构的情况下,全球脆弱指数在过去 30 年中平均增长了约 2%。因此,每个人的生理衰老相当于大约一年的寿命。这种总体趋势在不同地理区域相对相似。我们还记录了劳动力生理衰老与经济增长之间的负相关关系。根据我们的首选规范,劳动力脆弱指数增加 1%,人均 GDP 就会下降 1.5%。这意味着,如果 1990 年至 2019 年期间没有生理衰老,劳动力生产率的年均增长率将提高 0.1 个百分点。