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我们如何分崩离析:10 个欧洲国家人类衰老的相似之处。

How We Fall Apart: Similarities of Human Aging in 10 European Countries.

机构信息

Department of Economics, University of Göttingen, Platz der Göttinger Sieben 3, 37073, Göttingen, Germany.

出版信息

Demography. 2018 Feb;55(1):341-359. doi: 10.1007/s13524-017-0641-8.

Abstract

We analyze human aging-understood as health deficit accumulation-for a panel of European individuals, using four waves of the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE data set) and constructing a health deficit index. Results from log-linear regressions suggest that, on average, elderly European men and women develop approximately 2.5 % more health deficits from one birthday to the next. In nonlinear regressions (akin to the Gompertz-Makeham model), however, we find much greater rates of aging and large differences between men and women as well as between countries. Interestingly, these differences follow a particular regularity (akin to the compensation effect of mortality) and suggest an age at which average health deficits converge for men and women and across countries. This age, which may be associated with human life span, is estimated as 102 ± 2.6 years.

摘要

我们分析了一组欧洲个体的人类衰老情况——将其理解为健康缺陷的积累——使用了欧洲健康、老龄化和退休研究(SHARE 数据集)的四个波次,并构建了一个健康缺陷指数。对数线性回归的结果表明,平均而言,老年欧洲男性和女性在下一个生日时会增加大约 2.5%的健康缺陷。然而,在非线性回归中(类似于 Gompertz-Makeham 模型),我们发现衰老的速度要快得多,而且男性和女性之间以及各国之间存在很大差异。有趣的是,这些差异遵循特定的规律(类似于死亡率的补偿效应),并表明男性和女性以及各国的平均健康缺陷会在某个年龄收敛。这个年龄可能与人类寿命有关,估计为 102±2.6 岁。

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