State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; School of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, People's Government of Qinghai Province and Beijing Normal University, Xining 810016, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Sep 10;838(Pt 4):156476. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156476. Epub 2022 Jun 6.
Typhoon disasters have caused casualties, property loss, and other negative impacts to social and economic development. Vulnerability is an important component of typhoon risk. However, little is known about the contributions of vulnerability factors and their interaction effects on typhoon-induced losses at a fine scale. Focusing on the vulnerability measures of Typhoon Hato in 2017 and Typhoon Mangkhut in 2018, this study aims to quantify the contribution and interactive effects of physical and socioeconomic factors on vulnerability based on the GeoDetector method and determine the factors that account for most of the change in vulnerability. The results show that from Typhoon Hato in 2017 to Typhoon Mangkhut in 2018, the vulnerability of the economy and houses decrease on average. Rain intensity and wind intensity are the dominant factors of disaster loss for Typhoon Hato and Typhoon Mangkhut, respectively. Vegetation cover and landform explain vulnerability better than average slope in most instances. For different loss types, the dominant socioeconomic vulnerability factor is different. For both typhoons, emergency transfer has a higher determining power (q) ranking for the population vulnerability, while the percentage of the GDP made up of primary industry have higher q ranking for economic vulnerability. The dominant interaction effects between two vulnerability factors differ depending on the typhoon and loss type but show a nonlinear enhancement effect in most cases. Moreover, changes in the maximum 4-hour accumulated rainfall account for most of the change in vulnerability between Hato and Mangkhut. Overall, the results can be conducive to understanding the complexity of vulnerability to typhoons and provide a reference for possible indicators for vulnerability assessment models, and determining the reasons for changes in vulnerability can be constructive to the formulation of specific policies for disaster prevention and mitigation.
台风灾害对社会经济发展造成人员伤亡、财产损失等负面影响。易损性是台风风险的一个重要组成部分。然而，对于脆弱性因素的贡献及其对小尺度台风损失的相互作用效应，人们知之甚少。本研究聚焦于 2017 年台风“天鸽”和 2018 年台风“山竹”的脆弱性措施，旨在基于 GeoDetector 方法量化物理和社会经济因素对脆弱性的贡献和交互作用效应，并确定导致脆弱性变化的主要因素。结果表明，从 2017 年台风“天鸽”到 2018 年台风“山竹”，经济和房屋的脆弱性平均呈下降趋势。雨强和风速强度分别是台风“天鸽”和台风“山竹”灾害损失的主导因素。在大多数情况下，植被覆盖度和地形比平均坡度更能解释脆弱性。对于不同的损失类型，主导的社会经济脆弱性因素也不同。对于这两个台风，对于人口脆弱性，应急转移具有更高的确定力（q）排名，而对于经济脆弱性，GDP 中第一产业的比例具有更高的 q 排名。两个脆弱性因素之间的主导交互效应因台风和损失类型而异，但在大多数情况下表现出非线性增强效应。此外，最大 4 小时累计降雨量的变化占“天鸽”和“山竹”之间脆弱性变化的大部分。总的来说，这些结果有助于理解台风脆弱性的复杂性，并为脆弱性评估模型的可能指标提供参考，确定脆弱性变化的原因对于制定具体的防灾减灾政策具有建设性意义。
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