Care Policy and Evaluation Centre, Department of Health Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, London WC2A 2AE, UK.
Milken Institute School of Public Health, Department of Health Policy and Management, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052, USA.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 May 24;19(11):6391. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19116391.
The number of Korean older people receiving informal care is expected to rise sharply due to aging population. This study makes projections of demand for informal care in community-dwelling older people aged 65 and over in Korea until 2067.
The study drew on data collected from waves 4-6 of the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (2012-2016, = 12,975). Population data published by Statistics Korea and data from the Long-term Care Insurance Statistical Yearbook for Korea were also used. A macro-simulation model was built to make the projections.
The number of older people receiving informal care will increase from 0.71 million in 2020 to 2.2 million in 2067. Demand for informal care from adult children or relatives is projected to rise by 257%, much faster than the increase in demand for spousal care (164%). The estimates are sensitive to alternative assumptions about future mortality rates, fertility rates, patterns of migration, and the prevalence of functional disabilities in the population.
Demand for informal care in Korea will rise substantially in the coming decades, and the increase will be uneven for different groups of care users. Our analyses are not only relevant to the long-term care system for the general older population but also have profound implications for intensive users of long-term care in Korea. The findings highlight the importance of accurate identification of unmet needs in the population and timely delivery of government support to older people and their informal caregivers.
由于人口老龄化，韩国接受非正式护理的老年人数量预计将大幅增加。本研究对韩国 65 岁及以上社区居住老年人对非正式护理的需求进行了预测，预测时间截至 2067 年。
本研究使用了韩国老龄化纵向研究（2012-2016 年，n=12975）第 4-6 波的数据。还使用了韩国统计局公布的人口数据和韩国长期护理保险统计年鉴的数据。建立了一个宏观模拟模型来进行预测。
接受非正式护理的老年人数量将从 2020 年的 71 万增加到 2067 年的 220 万。预计子女或亲属提供的非正式护理需求将增长 257%，远高于配偶护理需求（164%）的增长。这些估计结果对未来死亡率、生育率、移民模式和人口功能障碍流行率的替代假设较为敏感。
未来几十年，韩国对非正式护理的需求将大幅增加，不同护理使用者群体的需求增长将不均衡。我们的分析不仅与普通老年人口的长期护理系统相关，而且对韩国长期护理的密集使用者也有深远的影响。研究结果强调了准确识别人口中未满足需求以及及时向老年人及其非正式护理人员提供政府支持的重要性。
