School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum, Beijing, 102249, China.
Research Center for China's Oil and Gas Industry Development, China University of Petroleum, Beijing, 102249, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Nov;29(51):78069-78091. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-21285-9. Epub 2022 Jun 11.
As a fossil energy with low carbon, natural gas has been regarded as an important energy for the energy green transition in the past few decades. It has long shouldered the mission of improving air quality and slowing climate warming. However, in recent years, with the acceleration of the energy transition, natural gas has become a major source of carbon emissions in Europe, but before the full coverage of renewable energy, natural gas remains the Europe's main energy in the short term. In such a complicated background, what is the short-term outlook for the European Union's (EU) natural gas demand? This paper will answer this question by forecasting the EU's natural gas consumption. A review of the literature that studies on gas consumption forecasting for the Europe has always been for one country or one region; there is no study for all EU countries, and the forecast periods are mostly for hourly, daily and annual data and no studies for monthly data. In order to fill these two research gaps, this paper forecasts the monthly natural gas consumption from 2021 to 2025 of the top seven gas-consuming countries in the EU and obtains the EU's total consumption on this basis. In addition, due to the nonlinear seasonal fluctuations in the monthly consumption data of the countries studied, a novel seasonal forecasting model is proposed to better fit this trend, named nonlinear grey Bernoulli model based on Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter (HP-NGBM(1,1)). To demonstrate that HP-NGBM(1,1) model has better predictive ability, this paper uses other seasonal models to make comparative forecasts, and the results show that the HP-NGBM(1,1) model has the smallest error. The forecasting results can provide the reference for the EU's natural gas consumption market regulation and the formulation of short-term environmental protection strategies and climate change response plannings.
作为一种低碳化石能源，天然气在过去几十年里一直被视为能源绿色转型的重要能源。它长期以来一直肩负着改善空气质量和减缓气候变暖的使命。然而，近年来，随着能源转型的加速，天然气已成为欧洲碳排放的主要来源，但在可再生能源全面覆盖之前，天然气在短期内仍将是欧洲的主要能源。在这种复杂的背景下，欧洲联盟（EU）的天然气需求短期前景如何？本文将通过预测欧盟天然气消费来回答这个问题。对欧洲天然气消费预测研究的文献综述一直是针对一个国家或一个地区的；没有针对所有欧盟国家的研究，预测期大多为小时、日和年数据，没有针对月数据的研究。为了填补这两个研究空白，本文预测了欧盟七个天然气消费大国 2021 年至 2025 年的月度天然气消费量，并在此基础上获得了欧盟的总消费量。此外，由于所研究国家的月度消费数据具有非线性季节性波动，本文提出了一种新颖的季节性预测模型，即基于 Hodrick-Prescott（HP）滤波器的非线性灰色贝叶斯模型（HP-NGBM(1,1)），以更好地拟合这一趋势。为了证明 HP-NGBM(1,1)模型具有更好的预测能力，本文使用其他季节性模型进行了比较预测，结果表明 HP-NGBM(1,1)模型的误差最小。预测结果可为欧盟天然气消费市场监管以及短期环境保护战略和气候变化应对规划的制定提供参考。
