Lai Wen-Ting, Wang Yuan, Huang Lin-Lin, Huang Yi-Min, Luo Jin, Chen Hua-Yang
Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory for Subtropical Resources and Environment, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China.
School of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2020 Oct;31(10):3529-3538. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202010.016.
The emission of CO from major sectors and key industries are the predominant sources of regional CO emissions. It is the prerequisite to promote sectoral carbon emissions reduction, to cla-rify their influencing factors and investigate their relationship with regional economic growth. It is also of great significance for the implementation of regional total carbon emissions control. Using the Logarithmic mean Divisia index method (LMDI) and the Tapio decoupling model, we analyzed the driving factors, and decoupling status with economic growth of 13 major carbon emissions industries in Fujian Province from 1997 to 2017. The results showed that the electricity and heat production and supply industry was the major source of CO emissions in Fujian Province, with an increase of 101.74 Mt (from 18.89 Mt to 120.63 Mt) during the period 1997 to 2017. The top three industries with the fastest annual growth rate in CO emissions were non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry (18.1%), textile industry (12.1%), and ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry (12.1%). Among the influence factors for the changes in carbon emissions in 13 major industries, economic growth effect and population scale effect were the main positive driving factors, while the restraining effects of energy structure, energy intensity, and industrial structure were continuously increasing. In terms of decoupling relationship, the decoupling index between economic growth and industry-related CO emissions showed a downward trend on the whole. Since the 11th Five-Year-Plan period, some industries had begun to show strong decoupling to some extent. The farming, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and water conservancy industry exhibited expansive negative decoupling, whereas the electricity and heat production and supply industry exhibited weak negative decoupling during 13th Five-Year Plan period. The effects of energy structure and energy intensity had substantial impacts on the decoupling with economic growth for various industries. The industrial structure effect had a smaller impact on the decoupling with economic growth, while the population scale effect had almost no impact.
主要部门和重点行业的CO排放是区域CO排放的主要来源。明确其影响因素并探究其与区域经济增长的关系,是推动部门碳排放减排的前提条件,对实施区域碳排放总量控制也具有重要意义。利用对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI)和Tapio脱钩模型,我们分析了1997年至2017年福建省13个主要碳排放行业的驱动因素及其与经济增长的脱钩状态。结果表明,电力、热力生产和供应业是福建省CO排放的主要来源,1997年至2017年期间排放量增加了101.74 Mt(从18.89 Mt增至120.63 Mt)。CO排放量年增长率最快的前三个行业分别是有色金属冶炼及压延加工业(18.1%)、纺织业(12.1%)和黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业(12.1%)。在13个主要行业碳排放变化的影响因素中,经济增长效应和人口规模效应是主要的正向驱动因素,而能源结构、能源强度和产业结构的抑制作用不断增强。在脱钩关系方面,经济增长与行业相关CO排放之间的脱钩指数总体呈下降趋势。自“十一五”时期以来,部分行业已开始在一定程度上呈现强脱钩状态。农林牧渔业和水利业呈现扩张性负脱钩,而电力、热力生产和供应业在“十三五”时期呈现弱负脱钩。能源结构和能源强度的影响对各行业与经济增长的脱钩有重大影响。产业结构效应对与经济增长脱钩的影响较小,而人口规模效应几乎没有影响。