School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 Pulau Pinang, Malaysia.
School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 Pulau Pinang, Malaysia.
Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol. 2022 Jun;41:100496. doi: 10.1016/j.sste.2022.100496. Epub 2022 Mar 19.
Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral infection of humans caused by a virus of the Flaviviridae family. In Malaysia the annual incidence risk of dengue fever for the period 2000 to 2019 ranged from 30 to 390 cases per 100,000. The aim of this paper was to identify spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal clusters of dengue fever in Peninsular Malaysia for the period 2015 to 2017. Counts of confirmed incident cases of dengue fever for each of the 86 districts of Peninsular Malaysia for the period 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2017 (inclusive) and district-level census data allowed us to calculate the incidence rate of dengue fever, defined as the number of confirmed cases of dengue fever per 100,000 person-years at risk. We applied Kulldorff's cylindrical space-time scan statistic and Takahashi et al.'s prismatic space-time scan statistic to the data. We identified no major differences in the number and location of spatial clusters of dengue incidence for 2015, 2016 and 2017 using Kulldorff's and Takahashi et al.'s method. Spatio-temporal clusters of dengue occurred at several times throughout each year in various high population dense areas. These clusters not only included high population density districts but also their adjacent district neighbours. The temporal clustering of dengue cases during the monsoon season (mid September to late December each year) implies that there is a biologically plausible causal association between rainfall and the incidence of dengue. Identification of locations and time periods when the frequency of dengue is high allows Malaysian public health authorities to be more objective in their decision making around vector control and dengue public awareness campaigns. Future research will quantify the association between population density and rainfall on dengue incidence. This will allow health authorities to take a more proactive approach for dengue control.
登革热是一种由黄病毒科病毒引起的人类蚊媒病毒感染。在马来西亚，2000 年至 2019 年期间，登革热的年发病率风险范围为每 10 万人 30 至 390 例。本文旨在确定 2015 年至 2017 年期间马来西亚半岛登革热的空间、时间和时空聚集。对 2015 年 1 月 1 日至 2017 年 12 月 31 日（含）期间马来西亚半岛 86 个区的每一例确诊的登革热病例进行计数，并结合区一级的人口普查数据，我们计算了登革热的发病率，定义为每 10 万人发病的确诊病例数。我们应用 Kulldorff 的圆柱时空扫描统计和 Takahashi 等人的棱柱时空扫描统计对数据进行了分析。我们使用 Kulldorff 和 Takahashi 等人的方法，发现 2015 年、2016 年和 2017 年登革热发病率的空间聚集数量和位置没有显著差异。在每年的不同时间，在人口密度高的多个地区都出现了登革热时空聚集。这些聚集不仅包括人口密度高的地区，还包括其相邻的区。季风季节（每年 9 月中旬至 12 月底）登革热病例的时间聚集表明，降雨与登革热的发生之间存在生物学上合理的因果关系。确定登革热高发的地点和时间段，使马来西亚公共卫生当局能够在控制病媒和开展登革热公众意识运动方面做出更客观的决策。未来的研究将量化人口密度和降雨量对登革热发病率的影响。这将使卫生当局能够采取更积极主动的方法来控制登革热。
