PURPOSE

Central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) is regarded as a predictor for local recurrence in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) but the role of prophylactic central lymph node dissection (CLND) is controversial. Our study aims to identify the clinical factors associated with CLNM and develop a nomogram for making individualized clinical decisions.

METHOD

The perioperative data of 1,054 consecutive patients between Jan 2019 and April 2021, in our center, were reviewed and analyzed. A total of 747 patients with histopathologically confirmed classical PTC were included as the training cohort and 374 (50% training cases) patients were randomly selected to build a validating cohort internal bootstrap analysis. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyze the correlation between clinicopathological characteristics and CLNM.

RESULT

In the training cohort, 33.6% (251/747) of patients with classical PTC were confirmed with CLNM. And the CLNM was determined in 31.4% (168/535) of non-Hashimoto's thyroiditis (HT) patients versus 39.2% (83/212) in HT patients (p=0.043). Four factors including gender, age, size, and HT status were confirmed significantly associated with CLNM. The established nomogram showed good discrimination and consistency with a C-index of 0.703, supported by the internal validation cohort with a C-index of 0.701. The decision curve analysis showed the nomogram has promising clinical feasibility.

CONCLUSION

Our study suggested that classical PTC patients with features like male gender, age<55 years old, tumor size>1cm, and HT condition had a higher risk of CLNM. And the nomogram we developed can help surgeons make individualized clinical decisions in classical PTC patients during preoperative and intraoperative management.