Larsen S F, Olesen K H, Jacobsen E, Nielsen H, Nielsen A L, Pietersen A, Jensen O J, Pedersen F, Waaben J, Kehlet H
Eur Heart J. 1987 Feb;8(2):179-85. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.eurheartj.a062246.
This prospective study was carried out to develop a model for the prediction of cardiac risk in non-cardiac surgery. Detailed data were collected concerning the preoperative status of 2609 consecutive patients, who were followed closely during the postoperative course. Fatal or life-threatening cardiac complications occurred in 68 patients (2.6%). By utilizing logistic regression, a model for prediction of cardiac risk was developed. The model contained six significant preoperative predictor variables: Congestive heart failure (with 3 degrees of severity); ischaemic heart disease (with 2 degrees of severity); diabetes mellitus; serum creatinine above 0.13 mmol l-1; emergency operation; and the type of operation (two categories). With this model it seems possible to discriminate between patients with very different levels of cardiac risk.
本前瞻性研究旨在建立一个预测非心脏手术心脏风险的模型。收集了2609例连续患者术前状态的详细数据，并在术后过程中对其进行密切随访。68例患者（2.6%）发生了致命或危及生命的心脏并发症。通过逻辑回归分析，建立了一个心脏风险预测模型。该模型包含六个术前显著预测变量：充血性心力衰竭（分3级）；缺血性心脏病（分2级）；糖尿病；血清肌酐高于0.13 mmol l-1；急诊手术；以及手术类型（两类）。利用该模型似乎能够区分心脏风险水平差异很大的患者。
