Chen Baixue, Li Li, Wang Qixiang, Li Shun
School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, China.
College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing, China.
Ann Oper Res. 2022 Jun 4:1-20. doi: 10.1007/s10479-022-04777-2.
A dramatic shift from offline to online has happened in consumer behavior, leading to enterprises ploughing a large number of digital advertisements to capture consumers' attention online. To evaluate the effectiveness of different online advertising, we explore the dynamic impacts of nine different online channels on the transition of consumers' potential purchase intention and the consumer behavior. We use a continuous-time hidden Markov model (CT-HMM) to capture the transfer path of consumers who are affected by various online channels. Our findings reveal that online advertising has a positive and statistically significant impact on the transition of consumer purchase intention, of which search advertising can significantly increase consumers' propensity to purchase, and its effect on transferring consumers from high to low purchase intention is not very strong in comparison. However, consumers have a very low annoyance threshold to short messaging service (SMS) advertising, and they are easy to get tired of SMS advertising and transfer to low purchase intention. Most firm-initiated advertising is more likely to transfer consumers to a low purchase intention state. Advertisements which can not improve consumer purchase intention very well have fewer stimulating effects on consumers' information collection behavior than other advertisements. Our research contributes to the literature on the effectiveness of online advertising and provide some management insights for enterprises.
消费者行为发生了从线下到线上的巨大转变，这导致企业投入大量数字广告以在网上吸引消费者的注意力。为了评估不同在线广告的效果，我们探究了九个不同在线渠道对消费者潜在购买意愿转变和消费者行为的动态影响。我们使用连续时间隐马尔可夫模型（CT-HMM）来捕捉受各种在线渠道影响的消费者的转移路径。我们的研究结果表明，在线广告对消费者购买意愿的转变具有积极且在统计上显著的影响，其中搜索广告能显著提高消费者的购买倾向，相比之下，其将消费者从高购买意愿转变为低购买意愿的效果不是很强。然而，消费者对短信服务（SMS）广告的厌烦阈值非常低，他们很容易对短信广告感到厌烦并转变为低购买意愿。大多数企业发起的广告更有可能将消费者转移到低购买意愿状态。不能很好提高消费者购买意愿的广告对消费者信息收集行为的刺激作用比其他广告要小。我们的研究为在线广告效果的文献做出了贡献，并为企业提供了一些管理见解。
