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巴西慢性呼吸道疾病死亡率：时间趋势和预测。

Mortality from chronic respiratory disease in Brazil: time trend and forecasts.

机构信息

Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto de Comunicação e Informação Científica e Tecnológica em Saúde. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.

Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Instituto de Medicina Social. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.

出版信息

Rev Saude Publica. 2022 Jun 13;56:52. doi: 10.11606/s1518-8787.2022056003672. eCollection 2022.

DOI:10.11606/s1518-8787.2022056003672
PMID:35703606
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9239334/
Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the time trend of monthly mortality rates from chronic respiratory diseases in Brazil from 1996 to 2017, with forecasts for 2022, besides analyzing the possibility of achieving the goal of the Plano de Ações Estratégicas para o Enfrentamento das Doenças Crônicas Não Transmissíveis no Brasil (Strategic Action Plan to Tackle Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases in Brazil) from 2011 to 2022.

METHODS

This is an ecological study that uses data from Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM - Mortality Information System), Sistema de Informações Demográficas e Socioeconômicas (Demographic and Socioeconomic Information System) and Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua (PNAD Contínua - Continuous National Household Sample Survey). We established the age range between 30 and 69 years old and the evolution of the rates over time was made by autoregressive integrated moving average models in R statistical tool.

RESULTS

Premature mortality rates from chronic respiratory diseases are decreasing in Brazil as a whole, mostly in state capitals. There is also a trend to reach the Ministry of Health's goal in most of the country. For capitals that tend not to reach the goal, there is an association between mortality and social indicators, healthcare network and frequency of smoking.

CONCLUSION

This study intends to improve planning of the public health system for the control of chronic respiratory diseases.

摘要

目的

分析 1996 年至 2017 年巴西慢性呼吸道疾病月度死亡率的时间趋势，并对 2022 年进行预测，同时分析巴西 2011 年至 2022 年《慢性病战略行动计划》目标实现的可能性。

方法

这是一项生态研究，使用了来自 Mortalidade 信息系统（SIM）、人口和社会经济信息系统（Demographic and Socioeconomic Information System）和连续全国家庭抽样调查（PNAD Contínua）的数据。我们确定了 30 至 69 岁的年龄范围，并在 R 统计工具中使用自回归综合移动平均模型来分析随时间的变化趋势。

结果

巴西整体慢性呼吸道疾病的过早死亡率正在下降，主要是在州首府。在该国大部分地区，也有达到卫生部目标的趋势。对于那些不太可能达到目标的首府城市，死亡率与社会指标、医疗保健网络和吸烟频率之间存在关联。

结论

本研究旨在改善公共卫生系统对慢性呼吸道疾病的控制规划。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8439/9239334/1221821421bb/1518-8787-rsp-56-52-gf02-pt.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8439/9239334/82b66e96c963/1518-8787-rsp-56-52-gf01.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8439/9239334/8a71ef057abe/1518-8787-rsp-56-52-gf02.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8439/9239334/a6197da4644b/1518-8787-rsp-56-52-gf01-pt.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8439/9239334/1221821421bb/1518-8787-rsp-56-52-gf02-pt.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8439/9239334/82b66e96c963/1518-8787-rsp-56-52-gf01.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8439/9239334/8a71ef057abe/1518-8787-rsp-56-52-gf02.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8439/9239334/a6197da4644b/1518-8787-rsp-56-52-gf01-pt.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8439/9239334/1221821421bb/1518-8787-rsp-56-52-gf02-pt.jpg

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Prevalence and attributable health burden of chronic respiratory diseases, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.1990-2017 年慢性呼吸道疾病的流行情况和可归因健康负担：2017 年全球疾病负担研究的系统分析。
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Epidemiology and burden of chronic respiratory diseases in Brazil from 1990 to 2017: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study.1990年至2017年巴西慢性呼吸道疾病的流行病学与负担：全球疾病负担2017研究分析
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Trends and risk factors of mortality and disability adjusted life years for chronic respiratory diseases from 1990 to 2017: systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.1990 年至 2017 年慢性呼吸道疾病的死亡率和伤残调整生命年的趋势和风险因素：2017 年全球疾病负担研究的系统分析。
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