College of Mathematics and Statistics, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing, People's Republic of China.
Department of Mathematics, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China.
Bull Math Biol. 2022 Jun 15;84(7):73. doi: 10.1007/s11538-022-01032-4.
Demographic structure and latent phenomenon are two essential factors determining the rate of tuberculosis transmission. However, only a few mathematical models considered age structure coupling with disease stages of infectious individuals. This paper develops a system of delay partial differential equations to model tuberculosis transmission in a heterogeneous population. The system considers demographic structure coupling with the continuous development of disease stage, which is crucial for studying how aging affects tuberculosis dynamics and disease progression. Here, we determine the basic reproduction number, and several numerical simulations are used to investigate the influence of various progression rates on tuberculosis dynamics. Our results support that the aging effect on the disease progression rate contributes to tuberculosis permanence.
人口结构和潜伏现象是决定结核病传播率的两个重要因素。然而，只有少数数学模型考虑了年龄结构与传染性个体疾病阶段的耦合。本文建立了一个时滞偏微分方程组系统来模拟异质人群中的结核病传播。该系统考虑了人口结构与疾病阶段的连续发展的耦合，这对于研究衰老如何影响结核病动力学和疾病进展至关重要。在这里，我们确定了基本再生数，并进行了一些数值模拟来研究各种进展率对结核病动力学的影响。我们的结果支持疾病进展率的衰老效应对结核病持久性的贡献。
