School of Mathematics and Computing (Computational Science and Engineering), Yonsei University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Hum Vaccin Immunother. 2022 Nov 30;18(5):2085468. doi: 10.1080/21645515.2022.2085468. Epub 2022 Jun 15.
In South Korea, despite the implementation of a universal single-dose vaccination program for children aged 12-15 months in 2005, the varicella incidence rate remains significant. Prior case-control studies have reported that currently used varicella vaccines are extremely inefficacious. We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) by fitting a dynamic transmission model to age-specific varicella incidence data from 2007 to 2015 and available vaccine coverage data. The initial vaccine efficacy and primary failure rates were estimated to be 61.1% and 38.9%, respectively. The average duration of protection was 21.4 years. The mean VE [(1-relative risk) %] for the simulated data of 2004-2014 birth cohorts decreased from 59.8% to 50.7% over 9 years. This mathematical modeling study demonstrated that the single-dose vaccine exhibits moderate effectiveness, and a high proportion of primary failure could be a main cause of breakthrough infections. Therefore, a two-dose vaccination strategy should be considered.
在韩国，尽管 2005 年实施了针对 12-15 月龄儿童的通用单剂疫苗接种计划，但水痘发病率仍然很高。先前的病例对照研究报告称，目前使用的水痘疫苗效力极低。我们通过拟合一个动态传播模型来估计疫苗效力（VE），该模型使用了 2007 年至 2015 年的特定年龄水痘发病率数据和可用的疫苗接种覆盖率数据。初始疫苗效力和主要失效率分别估计为 61.1%和 38.9%。保护期平均为 21.4 年。2004-2014 年出生队列的模拟数据的平均 VE[(1-相对风险) %]在 9 年内从 59.8%降至 50.7%。这项数学建模研究表明，单剂疫苗具有中等效力，主要失效比例高可能是突破性感染的主要原因。因此，应考虑采用两剂疫苗接种策略。
