Predicting ecological impacts of the invasive brush-clawed shore crab under environmental change.

Globally, the number of invasive non-indigenous species is continually rising, representing a major driver of biodiversity declines and a growing socio-economic burden. Hemigrapsus takanoi, the Japanese brush-clawed shore crab, is a highly successful invader in European seas. However, the ecological consequences of this invasion have remained unexamined under environmental changes-such as climatic warming and desalination, which are projected in the Baltic Sea-impeding impact prediction and management. Recently, the comparative functional response (resource use across resource densities) has been pioneered as a reliable approach to quantify and predict the ecological impacts of invasive non-indigenous species under environmental contexts. This study investigated the functional response of H. takanoi factorially between different crab sexes and under environmental conditions predicted for the Baltic Sea in the contexts of climate warming (16 and 22 °C) and desalination (15 and 10), towards blue mussel Mytilus edulis prey provided at different densities. Hemigrapsus takanoi displayed a potentially population-destabilising Type II functional response (i.e. inversely-density dependent) towards mussel prey under all environmental conditions, characterised by high feeding rates at low prey densities that could extirpate prey populations-notwithstanding high in-field abundances of M. edulis. Males exhibited higher feeding rates than females under all environmental conditions. Higher temperatures reduced the feeding rate of male H. takanoi, but did not affect the feeding rate of females. Salinity did not have a clear effect on feeding rates for either sex. These results provide insights into interactions between biological invasions and climate change, with future warming potentially lessening the impacts of this rapidly spreading marine invader, depending on the underlying population demographics and abundances.