Pocock S J, Ashby D, Smith M A
Int J Epidemiol. 1987 Mar;16(1):57-67. doi: 10.1093/ije/16.1.57.
The Institute of Child Health/Southampton study is the largest cross-sectional survey of lead exposure and children's intelligence. 402 six year olds in London with tooth lead concentration in three pre-defined ranges were selected for neuropsychological testing. This paper presents new findings on the relationship between child IQ and tooth lead levels which build on previous findings in four respects: Rather than simply classifying children into high, medium and low lead groups the actual concentrations of lead in each child's tooth have been used to provide a more powerful assessment of the association between IQ and body lead burden. The influence of parental and social factors on child IQ is explored in detail in order to see if any residual lead-IQ association exists after allowance for such confounders. The methods of multiple regression, including an 'optimal' statistical policy, are more fully described. The possibility of interactions between lead and confounders is explored. Findings are that parental IQ is the most important influence on child IQ, though several other factors (eg: family size, social class and quality of marital relationships) were also significantly related. There was no overall evidence that tooth lead concentrations were related to child IQ once these other factors were taken into account. However, a significant interaction between tooth lead and sex of child indicates that the lead-IQ association appears much more pronounced in boys. This unexpected finding needs cautious interpretation and further exploration in other studies.
儿童健康研究所/南安普敦研究是关于铅暴露与儿童智力的规模最大的横断面调查。从伦敦选取了402名6岁儿童,他们牙齿中的铅浓度处于三个预先设定的范围,接受神经心理学测试。本文呈现了关于儿童智商与牙齿铅含量之间关系的新发现,这些新发现基于之前的发现,在四个方面有所拓展:不是简单地将儿童分为高铅、中铅和低铅组,而是使用每个儿童牙齿中铅的实际浓度,以便更有力地评估智商与体内铅负荷之间的关联。详细探讨了父母和社会因素对儿童智商的影响,以查看在考虑这些混杂因素后是否存在任何残余的铅 - 智商关联。更全面地描述了多元回归方法,包括一种“最优”统计策略。探讨了铅与混杂因素之间相互作用的可能性。研究结果表明,父母的智商是对儿童智商最重要的影响因素,不过其他几个因素(例如:家庭规模、社会阶层和婚姻关系质量)也显著相关。一旦考虑到这些其他因素,总体上没有证据表明牙齿铅浓度与儿童智商有关。然而,牙齿铅含量与儿童性别之间存在显著的相互作用,这表明铅 - 智商关联在男孩中似乎更为明显。这一意外发现需要谨慎解读,并在其他研究中进一步探索。