Vinson John E, Gottdenker Nicole L, Chaves Luis Fernando, Kaul RajReni B, Kramer Andrew M, Drake John M, Hall Richard J
Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA.
Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA.
R Soc Open Sci. 2022 Jun 8;9(6):220582. doi: 10.1098/rsos.220582. eCollection 2022 Jun.
Deforestation alters wildlife communities and modifies human-wildlife interactions, often increasing zoonotic spillover potential. When deforested land reverts to forest, species composition differences between primary and regenerating (secondary) forest could alter spillover risk trajectory. We develop a mathematical model of land-use change, where habitats differ in their relative spillover risk, to understand how land reversion influences spillover risk. We apply this framework to scenarios where spillover risk is higher in deforested land than mature forest, reflecting higher relative abundance of highly competent species and/or increased human-wildlife encounters, and where regenerating forest has either very low or high spillover risk. We find the forest regeneration rate, the spillover risk of regenerating forest relative to deforested land, and how rapidly regenerating forest regains attributes of mature forest determine landscape-level spillover risk. When regenerating forest has a much lower spillover risk than deforested land, reversion lowers cumulative spillover risk, but instaneous spillover risk peaks earlier. However, when spillover risk is high in regenerating and cleared habitats, landscape-level spillover risk remains high, especially when cleared land is rapidly abandoned then slowly regenerates to mature forest. These results suggest that proactive wildlife management and awareness of human exposure risk in regenerating forests could be important tools for spillover mitigation.
森林砍伐会改变野生动物群落，改变人类与野生动物的相互作用，通常会增加人畜共患病溢出的可能性。当砍伐森林后的土地恢复为森林时，原始森林和再生（次生）森林之间的物种组成差异可能会改变溢出风险轨迹。我们建立了一个土地利用变化的数学模型，其中不同栖息地的相对溢出风险不同，以了解土地恢复如何影响溢出风险。我们将这个框架应用于以下情景：砍伐森林后的土地比成熟森林的溢出风险更高，这反映了高能力物种的相对丰度更高和/或人类与野生动物的接触增加，以及再生森林的溢出风险非常低或非常高的情景。我们发现森林再生速度、再生森林相对于砍伐森林后的土地的溢出风险，以及再生森林恢复成熟森林属性的速度决定了景观层面的溢出风险。当再生森林的溢出风险比砍伐森林后的土地低得多时，土地恢复会降低累积溢出风险，但瞬时溢出风险会更早达到峰值。然而，当再生和砍伐后的栖息地溢出风险很高时，景观层面的溢出风险仍然很高，尤其是当砍伐后的土地迅速被弃用然后缓慢恢复为成熟森林时。这些结果表明，积极的野生动物管理以及对再生森林中人类接触风险的认识可能是减轻溢出风险的重要工具。
