Silva Isabel, Alonso Hugo
Faculdade de Engenharia, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal.
CIDMA, Universidade de Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal.
J Appl Stat. 2020 Jul 21;47(13-15):2927-2940. doi: 10.1080/02664763.2020.1795812. eCollection 2020.
The Tourism sector is of strategic importance to the North Region of Portugal and is growing. Forecasting monthly overnight stays in this region is, therefore, a relevant problem. In this paper, we analyze data more recent than those considered in previous studies and use them to develop and compare several forecasting models and methods. We conclude that the best results are achieved by models based on a non-parametric approach not considered so far for these data, the singular spectrum analysis.
旅游业对葡萄牙北部地区具有战略重要性且正在发展。因此，预测该地区的月度过夜停留人数是一个相关问题。在本文中，我们分析了比以往研究中所考虑的数据更新的数据，并利用这些数据开发和比较了几种预测模型和方法。我们得出结论，基于非参数方法（迄今为止这些数据未考虑过的奇异谱分析）的模型取得了最佳结果。
