Brinck J W
Ciba Found Symp. 1977(57):23-48. doi: 10.1002/9780470720387.ch3.
The geochemistry of phosphorus and the global distribution of its resources are reviewed. The concept of reserves and resources is discussed in view of recent price developments in the phosphate mining industry. A description is given on the application of a model called MIMIC (Mining Industry Model for Inventorization and Cost evaluation of mineral resources) for estimating the inferred global reserves and resources in different cost categories. Based on the size and growth rate of annual production, the inferred reserves can be estimated at +/- 20 000 Mt of phosphorus. This figure is in reasonable agreement with conventionally estimated demonstrated resources. Estimates of exploitable resources with the MIMIC model vary between 40 000 and 500 000 Mt with about 20 000 Mt in deposits containing about 14% P (70% BPL). The inferred reserves alone would satisfy current consumption for many hundreds of years. In this context, the historical growth rate of slightly less than 7% per annum appears neither exceptional nor particularly alarming with respect to the next doubling of the world population.
本文综述了磷的地球化学及其全球资源分布情况。鉴于近期磷酸盐采矿业的价格走势，讨论了储量和资源的概念。介绍了一种名为MIMIC（矿产资源清查与成本评估矿业模型）的模型在估算不同成本类别下推断的全球储量和资源方面的应用。根据年产量的规模和增长率，推断的磷储量估计为±20000公吨。这一数字与传统估计的已探明资源量相当吻合。利用MIMIC模型估算的可开采资源量在40000至500000公吨之间，含磷量约14%（70%BPL）的矿床中约有20000公吨。仅推断的储量就足以满足数百年的当前消费量。在这种情况下，每年略低于7%的历史增长率对于世界人口的下一次翻倍而言，既不异常也不特别令人担忧。
