University of Reading.
Sci Prog. 2013;96(Pt 2):109-52. doi: 10.3184/003685013X13677472447741.
The peak in the world production of phosphorus has been predicted to occur in 2033, based on world reserves of rock phosphate (URR) reckoned at around 24,000 million tonnes (Mt), with around 18,000 Mt remaining. This figure was reckoned-up to 71,000 Mt, by the USGS, in 2012, but a production maximum during the present century is still highly probable. There are complex issues over what the demand will be for phosphorus in the future, as measured against a rising population (from 7 billion to over 9 billion in 2050), and a greater per capita demand for fertiliser to grow more grain, in part to feed animals and meet a rising demand for meat by a human species that is not merely more populous but more affluent. As a counterweight to this, we may expect that greater efficiencies in the use of phosphorus - including recycling from farms and of human and animal waste - will reduce the per capita demand for phosphate rock. The unseen game changer is peak oil, since phosphate is mined and recovered using machinery powered by liquid fuels refined from crude oil. Hence, peak oil and peak phosphorus might appear as conjoined twins. There is no unequivocal case that we can afford to ignore the likelihood of a supply-demand gap for phosphorus occurring sometime this century, and it would be perilous to do so.
据估计，全球磷矿资源（URR）约为 240 亿吨，剩余约 180 亿吨，世界磷产量峰值预计将在 2033 年出现。美国地质调查局（USGS）在 2012 年估计这一数字为 710 亿吨，但本世纪仍极有可能达到磷产量的最大值。未来对磷的需求将是一个复杂的问题，因为人口（到 2050 年从 70 亿增长到 90 多亿）在增加，而人均对化肥的需求也在增加，以种植更多的粮食，部分是为了饲养动物，并满足人类对肉类的不断增长的需求，因为人类不仅人口更多，而且更加富裕。作为对此的平衡，我们可以预期，磷的使用效率将会提高，包括从农场和人类及动物废物中回收利用，从而降低人均对磷矿的需求。看不见的游戏改变者是石油峰值，因为磷是通过使用由原油提炼的液体燃料驱动的机械来开采和回收的。因此，石油峰值和磷峰值可能会同时出现。我们不能忽视本世纪某个时候磷的供需缺口出现的可能性，否则将是危险的。
