College of Economics and Management, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun, Jilin, China.
Department of Agricultural Economics and Finance, Mwalimu Julius. K. Nyerere University of Agriculture and Technology, Musoma, Tanzania.
PLoS One. 2022 Jun 17;17(6):e0270146. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0270146. eCollection 2022.
The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors that influence beef meat exports in Tanzania, with a particular focus on the years 1985 to 2020, in enhancing the development of beef meat export-oriented policy in Tanzania, thereby enhancing beef exports in Tanzania. A time-series panel dataset was analyzed using both descriptive statistics and ordinary least squares (OLS) linear regression analyses models. As per the descriptive analyses, beef meat exports reached the highest pick of 4,300 tons per year in 1990, whereas from 1991 to date, beef meat exportation in Tanzania has been in declining trends despite an increase in beef meat output and trade openness from 162,500 to 486,736 tons and 7.6 to 98.7%, respectively. Nevertheless, while the prospect of Tanzanian beef meat exports appears bright and promising, the industry will continue to encounter trade barriers and must stay competitive to produce enough volume and quality beef meat to meet the needs of its existing and expanding markets. This is because, Tanzanian beef meat competes for market share with beef meat from other countries in the global markets, where customers pay a premium for lines of beef meat that meet quality standards while discarding those that do not. This indicates that the quantity of beef meat produced has no relevance to its world market share, but its quality standards do. Furthermore, the econometric results revealed that the coefficients of the terms of trade, Tanzania GDP per capita, global beef meat consumption, trade openness, and beef meat outputs were found to be significantly positive (P < 0.05) influencing beef meat exports in Tanzania, whereas the trading partners' GDP per capita and exchange rate were not. The findings have varying implications as to what factors need to be addressed to further improve beef meat exports. From the farmer's perspective, better access to adequate funds as a result of increased income benefit from export will assist in improving beef cattle productivity and quality to compete effectively in the global markets. From the government's perspective, because trade openness promotes economic growth through export benefits, the Tanzania government and policymakers need to establish balanced policies to strengthen bilateral trade relationships to generate more opportunities in global markets.
本研究旨在探讨影响坦桑尼亚牛肉出口的因素,特别关注 1985 年至 2020 年期间的情况,以促进坦桑尼亚牛肉出口导向型政策的发展,从而提高坦桑尼亚的牛肉出口。本研究使用描述性统计和普通最小二乘法(OLS)线性回归分析模型对时间序列面板数据集进行了分析。根据描述性分析,1990 年坦桑尼亚的牛肉出口量达到了每年 4300 吨的峰值,而自 1991 年以来,尽管牛肉产量和贸易开放度分别从 162500 吨增加到 486736 吨和从 7.6%增加到 98.7%,但坦桑尼亚的牛肉出口却呈下降趋势。然而,尽管坦桑尼亚的牛肉出口前景光明且充满希望,但该行业仍将继续面临贸易壁垒,必须保持竞争力,以生产足够数量和质量的牛肉来满足现有和不断扩大的市场需求。这是因为,在全球市场上,坦桑尼亚的牛肉与其他国家的牛肉竞争市场份额,在这些市场中,客户愿意为符合质量标准的牛肉支付溢价,而将不符合标准的牛肉淘汰。这表明,牛肉的产量与其在世界市场上的份额无关,而与其质量标准有关。此外,计量经济学结果表明,贸易条件、坦桑尼亚人均 GDP、全球牛肉消费、贸易开放度和牛肉产量等项的系数被发现对坦桑尼亚的牛肉出口具有显著的正影响(P<0.05),而贸易伙伴的人均 GDP 和汇率则没有。这些发现对需要解决哪些因素以进一步提高牛肉出口有不同的影响。从农民的角度来看,由于出口带来的收入增加而更好地获得充足资金,将有助于提高肉牛的生产力和质量,从而在全球市场上有效竞争。从政府的角度来看,由于贸易开放度通过出口收益促进经济增长,坦桑尼亚政府和决策者需要制定平衡的政策,以加强双边贸易关系,在全球市场上创造更多机会。